Current News

The Guardian, London


Comment

An election to anoint an occupation

Had it been held in Zimbabwe, the west would have denounced it

Salim Lone
Monday January 31, 2005
The Guardian

Tony Blair and George Bush were quick to characterise yesterday's
election as a triumph of democracy over terror. Bush declared it a
"resounding success", while Blair asserted that "The force of freedom
was felt throughout Iraq". And yet the election fell so completely
short of accepted electoral standards that had it been held in, say,
Zimbabwe or Syria, Britain and America would have been the first to
denounce it.

Draconian security measures left Iraq's cities looking like ghost
towns. The ballot papers were so complicated that even Jalal Talabani,
the Kurdish leader, needed a briefing on how to use one. Most
candidates had been afraid to be seen in public, or to link their names
to their faces in the media. The United Iraqi Alliance, identifying
only 37 of their 225 candidates, explained: "We offer apologies for not
mentioning the names of all the candidates ... We have to keep them
alive."

The millions of Iraqis, as well as the UN electoral team and the Iraqi
election commission staff, who did participate in the process despite
the grave risk, deserve our respect. But it was a risk taken in vain.
The election was illegitimate, and cannot resolve the rampant
insecurity resulting from the occupation. The only way to stop the
destruction of Iraq is to end the occupation and enfranchise the
Sunnis, who are leading the resistance because they see the US as
systematically excluding them from the role they deserve to play in
Iraq.

Indeed, this so-called election, with its national rather than
provincial voting rolls, was designed to reduce Sunni representation
and to anoint US-supported groups who will allow this occupation to
continue. A high turnout does not change the fact that this is an
illegitimate, occupier's election.

Early in the occupation, the Bush administration recognised that a
democratic Iraq would not countenance the strategic goals the war was
fought for: controlling the oil reserves and establishing military
bases to enable the political transformation the neocons envisage for
the Middle East. Even as the US proclaimed its mission as introducing
democracy to Iraq, they worked to make sure that the processes they put
in place would produce leaders they had picked. The US obtained a
carefully circumscribed UN involvement in order to provide the chosen
leaders a measure of legitimacy.

It was clear to those of us in Baghdad right after Saddam's fall that
no long-term American project there would succeed. The limited
self-governance plan was a non-starter because of the transparent
control the US exercised over the process. In any event, virtually no
Iraqis, not even those benefiting from the US presence, see the
superpower as a promoter of human rights and democracy - even before
the atrocities in Abu Ghraib, Najaf and Falluja.

Each US-dictated self-governance milestone therefore backfired just
like the current election undoubtably will, generating wider support
for and bloodier attacks by the insurgency. The first devastating
attacks on the foreign presence in Iraq, for example, came soon after
the US selected the Iraqi Governing Council: first the Jordanian
mission, then the UN's Baghdad headquarters, were blown up.

In its search for greater legitimacy for its preferred Iraqi
leadership, the US has avoided the UN security council, since most of
its members abhor what is being done to Iraq. The US has instead chosen
to work with individual representatives. The first such UN involvement,
when the late Sergio Vieira de Mello headed the UN mission in Iraq, was
the most effective. He was able to persuade the then US proconsul, Paul
Bremer, that he should appoint an Iraqi Governing Council rather than
an advisory body. Even then, the anger about the individuals and groups
on this council, and for UN support for it, was palpable in Iraq.

Nearly a year later, in another bid for UN support, Bush assured the
world that the interim government would be picked by Lakhdar Brahimi,
Kofi Annan's special representative. Brahimi spent weeks in Iraq
consulting domestic groups about who they felt should lead the country.
But on the day the interim government was to be appointed, a deal was
struck by the Americans behind Brahimi's back, to make the CIA-linked
Ayad Allawi prime minister.

The US has little popular support in the country. It has, however, won
the support of the extremely influential Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who
tolerates an occupation most of his followers hate, with the
single-minded sectarian goal of having the majority Shia at the helm of
power in Iraq. The occupation has destroyed Iraq and is destabilising
the world by exacerbating the deep animosity that most Arabs and
Muslims feel for the US. The Bush administration is now provoking the
Muslim world by threats against Iran. The rest of the world looks on,
mostly helplessly.

· Salim Lone was director of communications for Sergio Vieira de Mello,
the UN special representative in Iraq, who was killed in August 2003

salimlone@msn.com

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2005

---

scmp - Friday, January 28, 2005

MICHAEL RICHARDSON
The rise of China and India, and the gradual thaw in their once-frosty relations, appears to be shaping Asia in positive ways. The world's two most populous nations held their first "strategic dialogue" this week, in advance of a ground-breaking visit to India in March or April by Premier Wen Jiabao.

Significantly, the dialogue in New Delhi between senior diplomats from the two sides reportedly included energy security as well as terrorism, weapons of mass destruction and reform of the United Nations.

China and India fought a border war in 1962. Beijing's close ties with Pakistan, India's long-time adversary, added to the subsequent tension, as did India's emergence in 1998 as a self-declared nuclear weapon state with an increasing ability to strike almost anywhere in China with its long-range missiles.

But India's relations with Pakistan, although still tenuous, are improving, and its trade with China is expected to be worth more than US$12 billion this year, up from less than US$1 billion five years ago.

Will Sino-Indian energy needs collide and disrupt their rapprochement? Will their energy interests bring them into conflict with the US in some areas, such as Iran and Sudan?

For example, earlier this month, India and Iran signed a preliminary agreement - unofficially estimated to be worth US$40 billion - that commits India to import Iranian liquefied natural gas by sea tankers and to develop two Iranian oilfields and a gas field. China has signed similar giant energy deals with Iran. This is despite US and European concerns about Iran's ambitions to build nuclear weapons.

India wants some Iranian gas to be piped through Pakistan. Both China and India rely increasingly on imports of oil and gas to fuel their economic growth. India is Asia's third-largest energy buyer after Japan and China.

The most recent Indian moves on the international energy chess board have been made with Bangladesh and Myanmar - two neighbours that have been wary of India in the recent past. Meeting in Yangon on January 13, officials of the three countries agreed in principle to co-operate in exporting gas by pipeline from Myanmar to India via Bangladesh. The gas is in offshore fields part-owned by Indian firms.

Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh says that the Myanmar-India pipeline and the proposed project to bring Iranian gas to India through Pakistan have the "ability to qualitatively transform the relationships of the countries of the region ... and set up a new paradigm in regional co-operation and friendship".

If the 900-km-long pipeline goes ahead, India will get some of the gas it needs, Bangladesh will get transit fees estimated to be worth US$125 million a year and transport for its own gas, while Myanmar will get badly needed foreign currency.

India says that the deal is driven by its need to reduce reliance on imported oil. But New Delhi's closer ties with Myanmar's junta may also serve to offset China's influence in the country stemming from its extensive economic and military links.

The fact that China and India have strong interests to work with the regime in Myanmar underlines the increasing futility of US and European Union policy of seeking political reform in Myanmar through sanctions and isolation.

The Chinese and Indian approach is in line with the Association of Southeast Asian Nation's policy of engagement. It is, however, jarringly out of step with the policy of the Bush administration, whose Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told her confirmation hearing in the Senate on January 19 that the US was especially concerned about six "outposts of tyranny" in the world, among them Myanmar and Iran.

Michael Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. This is a personal comment.

---

AFT - Jan 24, 05

Malaysia, which chairs the world's biggest grouping of Muslim countries, has warned the United States that an attack on Iran would be of "great concern" to the Islamic world.

Defence Minister Najib Razak, who is also deputy prime minister, was reacting to a statement by US President George W Bush last week that he could not rule out using force if Tehran failed to rein in its nuclear plans.

The US would have to produce "irrefutable" evidence of Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities to avoid making the same mistake it made over Iraq, Najib said in remarks published here yesterday.

"I don't know the basis of President Bush's statement but his last allegation (that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction) has proven to be baseless," Najib was quoted as saying by local media.

Both Iran and Iraq are members of the 57-nation Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC), of which Malaysia is the current chairman.

"We do not know what kind of information they have regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities, but I think what the world wants is hard and irrefutable evidence if at all Iran is a threat to the world," he said.

"I don't think that anyone is convinced at this stage that Iran is a threat."

Nuke programme suspended

Malaysia strongly opposed the US-led invasion of Iraq, and Najib said any attack on another Islamic country would be of great concern to Muslim nations and the world.

"What is important is the sovereignty of the country concerned and the fact that there are international laws to be considered under the United Nations charter."

Iran, which denies wishing to acquire a bomb, in November announced the suspension of its nuclear enrichment programme following protracted talks with Britain, France and Germany.

In mid-December, the three countries again took up talks with Tehran to try to conclude a long-term deal whereby the Iranians would definitively give up any ambitions of producing a nuclear weapon.

- AFP

---

---

---

The Times, London, January 22, 2005

Robert Thomson

WHEN YOU purchase a Chinese-made television set, which may be hiding
its true identity behind a Japanese brand name, you are paying homage
to Zhao Ziyang. If your personal computer is replaced this year with a
newfangled desktop from IBM, just taken over by a Chinese company
called Lenovo, you are paying homage to Zhao Ziyang. And if you are
encouraging, if not forcing, your children to learn Mandarin because of
the inevitable opportunities that the language will create in their
lifetime, you are paying homage to Zhao Ziyang.

Not that Zhao, whose death this week has been assiduously ignored by
the Chinese Government, would have been a hostage to such homage.
Despite the imperial tradition of intimidation and of systems of
sycophancy that even London luvviedom would eye enviously, Zhao
introduced the concept of self-effacement to Chinese politics, daring
to commit the ultimate act of institutional anarchy — joking at his own
expense in public.

The Turandotty riddle for the Communist Party is that most of the
ruling elite know that they owe their current position to Zhao and yet
to laud him is to challenge the very existence of the party. When Zhao
made an emotional visit to protesting students in Tiananmen Square in
1989, the bemused official who accompanied him was Wen Jiabao, now the
country’s Prime Minister. Because of Tiananmen, Wen’s admiration for
Zhao is the political love that dare not speak its name.

For most outside commentators, the problem is precisely the opposite.
Too much analysis in the days since Zhao’s death has focused solely on
the tragedy of Tiananmen, in part because journalists, fond of telling
personal anecdotes about their experience in Beijing at that time,
perceive the preceding 5,000 years of Chinese history as a commercial
break that presages their own appearance on the scene. The experience
of foreign correspondents in China does not always replicate the
experience of the Chinese in China.

The perversity of viewing Zhao through the puny prism of limited
personal experience is that the significance of his influence on policy
and the potential significance of his policies for other developing
countries is obscured. He was among a cadre of reformers who had
witnessed first-hand the inhumanity of ideology run amok, and who knew
that the reason for decades of deprivation was the combination of a
fraudulent philosophy and a leader, Mao Zedong, who fashioned that
philosophy in his own image, creating a secular spirituality with
himself, naturally enough, as godhead.

There was a large library of devotional literature, including
miraculous tales of complicated operations being performed under the
gauche guidance of The Little Red Book and of inspired deaf-mutes at
the Liaoyuan Mining Administration suddenly able to sing the praises of
Chairman Mao. Even in 1985, when I arrived in Beijing as a
correspondent and Zhao was Prime Minister, this genre of tragi-comic
nonsense still had a hold on hundreds of millions of people. Not that
they necessarily believed every weird word, but because it was still
politically dangerous to suggest publicly that you did not believe
every word.

Curiosity was discouraged and integrity was incidental. During the
Cultural Revolution (officially 1966-76) a stray conversation was
enough to raise suspicion and the purges were only partly political. If
you had a grudge against a neighbour, and coveted his Flying Pigeon
bicycle, then spreading a few rumours about “bourgeois tendencies”
would be enough to excite the street committee to action. The desired
result was that your own ideological purity would be proved and you
would have a better bicycle.

As the Cultural Revolution was drawing to a close, Zhao was in Sichuan,
experimenting with the economic and psychological therapy that would be
required to reconstruct a country that did not trust itself, let alone
anyone else. The great, world-changing Chinese export boom began in
small villages, where farmers were allowed to sell produce on free
markets once their state quota had been filled and encouraged to
develop sideline businesses. For a population too familiar with famine,
the punning peasant rhyme of the era was: Yao chi liang, zhao Ziyang —
if you want to eat grain, look to Ziyang.

China’s political system is far from reformed, as the Communist
conundrum over Zhao’s passing has reinforced, but the personal and
economic emancipation continues. Young Chinese studying in Britain have
choices almost unimaginable when they were born, and yet if those early
experiments in Sichuan had failed, and if Zhao and a few others had not
institutionalised change, those same students would be sitting mute in
classrooms contemplating whether or not “class struggle ” was relevant
in a society in which all were impoverished.

Perhaps it is best to bid farewell to Zhao, a tolerant and humble
humanist, with a stanza from Mao Zedong, a far better poet than he was
a leader:

Sweet and fair, she craves not spring for herself alone,
To be the harbinger of spring she is content.
When the mountain flowers are in full bloom
She will smile, mingling in their midst.
(From Ode to the Plum Blossom, 1961)

The author is Editor of The Times

---

The Hindu, Chennai, India, 20 January 2005

By Vaiju Naravane

Many in the West were offended by India turning down offers of aid
immediately after the tsunami. Is this a carryover of the colonial
mentality?

THE INDIAN Government's decision to refuse international help for
immediate disaster relief in the immediate aftermath of the tsunami was
greeted with incomprehension and stupor by the French press and public.
There was a thread of irritation running through most media reports.
India was accused of hubris, of wanting to play big power politics at a
time when her people were enduring great suffering.

Could a country as poor as India really afford to turn down aid so
generously and sincerely offered by the French who had opened their
hearts and their purses at the sight of so much suffering and wanton
desolation? Was New Delhi's desire to sit at the donors' table not
based on misguided pride, even arrogance?

Three days after New Delhi announced its decision, my telephone rang. A
woman who wished to identify herself only by her first name said that
as a regular visitor to Pondicherry and the region, she felt concerned
and wished to help. The Indian Government's decision, she said, was a
slap in the face to people like her who held India in their hearts.

"I know your country and that strip of coast. The people are poor and
have been made poorer still. It is cruel to deprive them of our help,
modest though it might be. I have already telephoned your Embassy to
express my concern and disappointment. Please let your Government know
that ordinary French people do not understand this decision. We think
it is cruel and selfish since it is not the Government that is affected
but some of the poorest sections of the population that no one cares
about."

There were other calls, all in more or less the same vein.
Associations, individuals wishing to be of "concrete help" upset at
being "turned away."

I tried to explain that they could always donate money to the Prime
Minister's relief fund or send money to reliable local NGOs doing
sterling work on the ground. To which the reply most times was that
they did not know of any local NGOs, and that they suspected donations
to the PM's fund would land up in the pockets of corrupt government
officials.

It would be fair to say that the incomprehension was mutual. Indians in
Paris too reacted badly to French accusations of high handedness and
over reach. K. Anantham, a shop owner who comes from Pondicherry, told
The Hindu : "The French should be happy that for once a poor nation is
prepared to stand on its feet and take care of its people. The French
want it both ways. When poor countries ask for aid they whine and
grumble about how they have to cough up in order to help people who
won't help themselves. But now that they have reacted so emotionally to
this disaster and a poor nation is saying, `Thanks, no thanks, we have
enough,' they feel insulted and rebuffed."

Rony Braumann, former president of Medecins sans Frontiers (Doctors
without Borders), analysed the phenomenon of mass charity witnessed
during this disaster. "There were several factors involved. Firstly,
there were many white faces amongst the dead and it is a well-known
fact that the closer the tragedy to a person, the greater the emotional
reaction. This time round, it was not just poor Indians or Bangladeshis
but several thousand white bodies that were washed up on the shore or
lost at sea.

"Secondly, the disaster happened just after Christmas, a time of year
when people tend to be both loving and giving. Thirdly, the victims
were `pure.' By that I mean this disaster could be seen as an act of
God as opposed to man-made disasters. Refugees in the Sudan or the
Congo do not move donors the same way because somewhere there is the
presumption that they are in some way responsible for the wars or
pestilence that affect them. Not so in this case. And finally, the
disaster had a huge visual impact. Without the television pictures
bringing the tragedy straight into our homes at a time like Christmas,
I doubt whether the impact would have been so strong. The reason why
AIDS charities have to fight hard to get funding is because the ravages
of the disease cannot be seen in this collective way and because people
feel the victims have brought it upon themselves."

In many ways, feels Mr. Braumann, charity is an extension of the old
colonial paternalism. Which is why being rebuffed causes such
indignation among the donors. "What would the French have said if the
Indians had come proposing their help during the killer heat wave that
claimed over 15,000 lives in France two years ago and for which we were
clearly unprepared," he asks.

When questioned about the adverse reaction in the French press to the
Indian Government's decision, French Defence Minister Michele
Alliot-Marie said the comments were a reflection of the lack of
knowledge about India's economical, technological and financial
progress. Although the media in France have now begun to talk about
India as the next Asian giant to watch, deeply held perceptions of
India as a submissive, colonised and poor nation have changed little.
For most French people India remains the land of starving millions, not
a country with a reservoir of qualified teachers, doctors and other
medical and disaster relief professionals capable of managing a crisis
of this magnitude.

When interviewing a cross-section of French people about India and
China, the response invariably was that the Chinese, a proud people,
would never have accepted help. "Somehow, if there were a huge
earthquake in China tomorrow, I'm not sure my first reaction would be
to send aid. Because for one thing I know the Chinese would not like it
or accept it and secondly because I feel the government would be able
to resolve the problem with efficiency and organisation," said Simone,
a banking executive.

And therein lies the nub of the problem. Most white people see India
and other developing countries as being inefficient, disorganised,
incapable of getting their act together during a crisis such as this
one. "They need us at a time like this. We have well-trained teams who
can help remove the debris, extract the bodies, clear the rubble in no
time. I am not sure your governments have trained personnel and the
equipment required. So you should not be refusing help," Simone said.

It did not help to explain that Indian ships were the first to reach
the harbours of Galle and Trincomalee. That India had given $22 million
to Sri Lanka and substantial aid to the Maldives. That Indian ships
were working alongside the Americans in Indonesia, that a similar sum
had been made available to the Sri Lankan Government in 2003 to combat
severe monsoon flooding.

Many of the media reports dwelt on how relief work was going badly in
Nagapattinam but failed to comment on the total chaos in Aceh where the
marines were trying to distribute food aid. It was hinted that the
Indian Government had made fabulous promises to the victims which
corrupt government officials were already in the process of breaking.
The message that came across was that the people were being deprived
further by corrupt officials.

"It is very difficult to change pre-conceived notions such as these.
The white nations had substituted colonial power with economic power
and although our dreams of empire are now more or less abandoned, we
continue to cling on to old notions of superiority.

"Deep down within themselves, most Europeans are convinced they are
superior — intellectually, technologically, financially and in terms of
efficiency and organisation to people from former colonies or the
developing world. This kind of thinking gives them a sense of power.
India saying no, we do not need you, we are doing quite nicely, thank
you, deprives them of this imaginary power. It's a breaking down of the
old colonial relationship and it is a painful process," concludes
psychologist Anne Nahoum.

Copyright © 2005, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the
contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written
consent of The Hindu

---

The Pioneer, New Delhi , 20 January 2005

Claude Arpi

On April 8, 1976, another Chinese leader, Zhou Enlai, passed away. The
Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution had just ended. Modern China had
gone through its 10 most tormented years. During the previous months,
Mao had refused to provide treatment for his Premier who had cancer;
the Emperor wanted Zhou to die before him. Even in death, in communist
China, there is a protocol!

A problem in China is that dead leaders are often more popular than
living ones. After Zhou's departure, Dr Zhisui Li, Mao's private
physician, commented: "What worried me most was the power struggle to
follow." In Beijing, memories of the Cultural Revolution purges were
still fresh in the people's psyche. Anger mounted, but the citizens in
Beijing had to wait to openly express their respect for the deceased
leader.

Dr Li wrote: "Beginning in mid-March, knowing that the Qing Ming
festival for honouring the dead would be celebrated on April 4, the
citizens of Beijing began going to the Monument to the Revolutionary
Heroes in Tiananmen Square to place mourning wreaths for Zhou. The
movement was spontaneous, and the crowds grew larger by the day." As
April 4 approached, Dr Li visited Tiananmen clandestinely: "The Square
was filled with tens of thousands of people singing, making speeches,
and reading poems... thousands of banners were flapping in the breeze.
It was impressive and moving." A similar event occurred 13 years later.
On April 9, 1989, Hu Yaobang, the former Secretary General of the CCP
(sacked two years earlier), had a stroke. A week later he passed away.

The same day, Zhao Ziyang, then Secretary General of the CCP, made the
customary assessment of Hu's life and agreed that he would have a
national funeral service "with the norms of standing members of the
Politburo". During that meeting, Zhao had requested Qiao Shi, number
three in the party and responsible for security, to "keep a close watch
on how Comrade Yaobang's death might impact the society." Qiao Shi is
said to have replied: "At the moment, society is in pretty good shape.
Things are fairly stable." In the afternoon of April 17, 600 students
of Chinese University of Political Science and Law marched into the
Tiananmen Square with mourning banners and wreaths. They were 10,000 by
the evening.

The next day, students and onlookers poured in from Beijing University
and other places. Wreaths accumulated in front of the Monument to the
Revolutionary Heroes. The rest is history. During the following days
and weeks, the students demanded freedom of speech, independence of the
press, democratic elections, greater transparency in Government
dealings. The pretext for the explosion of the students' ire was the
fact that Hu Yaobang had been sacked though he had followed "correct"
policies. They demanded that the Government "should affirm as correct
Hu Yaobang's views on democracy and freedom".

What infuriated most of the students was an editorial in the People's
Daily describing the first spontaneous demonstrations as "dongluan"
(turmoil). The word had a derogatory meaning in Chinese -it was
reminiscent of the black days of the Cultural Revolution.

The man who played the main role during the 1989 Tiananmen Square
events was Zhao Ziyang. Like Hu Yaobang, he thought that a possibility
of political reform existed in communist China. He tried to negotiate a
compromise with the students till the last minute. His approach failed
but had he succeeded, it could have changed the Middle Kingdom's fate.

One of his collaborators, Wu Guoguang, remembered in the Time Magazine:
"In the wrong place at the wrong time, Zhao Ziyang did the right thing.
It was close to midnight on the night of May 19, 1989. China's leaders
were finalising their plans to declare martial law and crush the
Tiananmen Square democracy protests that had, in the preceding 48
hours, swelled to include more than a million demonstrators. Zhao, then
general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, might have remained
with the commissars inside Beijing's Great Hall of the People as they
called in the troops. Instead, stooped with fatigue, tears in his eyes,
he waded into the throngs of students and in the gathering darkness
pleaded with them to abandon their vigil before it was too late."

Three days earlier, Zhao Ziyang had received Mikhail Gorbachev. Was
Zhao trying to emulate his Soviet homolog when he spoke to the
students? The Chinese party chief told Mr Gorbachev that "some young
people now had doubts about the superiority of socialism, that these
doubts arose from genuine problems with party leadership and certain
entrenched habits, and that the only way out for socialism was
continued vigorous reforms." This view was certainly not shared by all
in the standing committee of the politburo. Just after Zhao had met
Gorbachev, an important meeting of the committee was held. Zhao lost
and the hardline prevailed. The next day, the matter was referred to a
group of elders led by Deng Xiaoping.

Deng confirmed the need to use force. On May 20, the martial law order
was signed by Li Peng. Two days later, Zhao Ziyang was sacked and Jiang
Zemin was called from Shanghai to replace him. During the night of June
3, Li Peng ordered the tanks to roll on the Square. Between 3,000 and
10,000 students lost their lives during the night. The party was saved
and the fate of China was sealed. One of the many ironies was that Li
Peng was Zhou Enlai's adopted son.

October 17, 2004, was Zhao's 75th birthday. A human rights group in
China reported: "In the past three days large groups of people have
been gathering outside of Zhao's Beijing home, requesting permission to
see him." On the same day, a group of senior Chinese citizens and
Zhao's supporters wrote to President Hu Jintao about the continuous
detention of Zhao: "...we strongly urge that you unconditionally and
immediately release Mr Zhao Ziyang from house arrest, restore his
freedom, and resume all his civil rights! No matter how CPC and its
Government would now judge the 1989 political storm, and whether Zhao
was right or wrong at that time, as a citizen of the People's Republic
of China, his civil rights ought to be respected and protected... We
believe that you share this common view with us, and with all those who
respect the Constitution and laws of China."

On January 8, 2005, media reported from Hong Kong that Zhao Ziyang had
died. This was denied by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman though
one can doubt this statement's veracity. The announcement of his death
was stage-managed to ensure that all arrangements for his
"non-official" funeral were complete. Two days before his official
death, the BBC announced: "A thousand policemen are to be deployed
every morning on Beijing's Tiananmen Square to escort visitors to the
flag-raising ceremony. The new rules may be designed to prevent any
dawn protests on the square, scene of a bloody pro-democracy crackdown
in 1989."

All this coincides with the publication of a Gallup report which
concluded: "The people of China may be far wealthier than they were a
decade ago, but they are not very satisfied with their quality of life,
a survey showed." Meanwhile, the EU prepares to lift the arms embargo
imposed after the Tiananmen events: This will be the third death of
Zhao. Politically, he died on the Square on the evening of May 1989; he
probably died in a Beijing hospital early this month; and the
principles he fought for will be buried by President Chirac and his
European colleagues for the sake of selling a few weapons more.

---

scmp - Tuesday, January 18, 2005


CHRIS YEUNG
If late patriarch Deng Xiaoping was the architect of the "one country, two systems" framework, late premier Zhao Ziyang acted as one key site manager who helped ensure the 1997 handover was a success.

In his capacity as premier in the early 1980s, Zhao represented the central government at the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration on December 19, 1984. His counterpart was British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.

The historic event ended the marathon and at times acrimonious talks between Beijing and London over the post-1997 fate of Hong Kong. Even though Deng had the final say on the 1984 accord and transitional arrangements, few could dismiss the role of the reform-minded premier.

Known for his liberal views in the Communist Party, Zhao made significant contributions to the formulation of policies towards Hong Kong as enshrined in the Joint Declaration.

In addition to Beijing's pledges about the preservation of the city's way of life after the handover, Zhao had committed to an arrangement, if not spirit, of minzhu zhigang, or "democracy ruling Hong Kong", when meeting a delegation of university students.

The democracy pledge was a significant confidence-booster, particularly among intellectuals and professionals, at a time when confidence remained shaky. About the same time, Hong Kong saw the emergence of political groups as it embarked on the bumpy road towards democracy.

One of the most vividly documented episodes during the handover negotiations was a brief encounter between Zhao and a group of journalists at the Great Hall of the People before meeting Lady Thatcher on September 23, 1982.

Asked by one journalist if Hong Kong should feel worried about its future, Zhao said: "I don't think that Hong Kong [people] need to be worried about the future. Why do you have to worry?"

"Does China intend to resume sovereignty?" another reporter asked. "Of course, China will resume sovereignty," Zhao responded. "If China resumes sovereignty, it will certainly take a series of measures to guarantee Hong Kong's prosperity and stability."

Zhao might have merely been following the party line when mapping out policies and strategy towards Hong Kong. His reformist image, however, struck a chord with the people in the heyday of the student-led Tiananmen Square demonstrations.

When he expressed sympathy with the students staging a hunger strike on Tiananmen Square, this became one of the lasting images in the minds of many people in Hong Kong who participated in 1989 rallies and the annual June 4 vigils in Victoria Park.

Legislator Cheung Man-kwong, of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China, said Zhao would be seen by history as the leader who opposed the crackdown against students in Beijing.

Shiu Sin-por, executive director of the One Country Two Systems Research Institute, said: "Some democrats still have complex feelings [about Zhao]. It's already 15 years [since Tiananmen]. A lot of people have different feelings about it now."

---

scmp - Tuesday, January 18, 2005

ANALYSIS by WANG XIANGWEI in Beijing
Those urging the central government to reassess the crackdown on demonstrators in Tiananmen Square in 1989 have lost their most powerful symbol with the death of Zhao Ziyang .

Despite appeals from Zhao's supporters, the mainland leadership is unlikely to hold a state funeral or official remembrance ceremonies for the former premier.

But the wisdom of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will be tested in deciding how the government should deal with unofficial and private events to remember him.

Some overseas analysts warn that Zhao's death could spark social unrest, in the same way that the death of purged party chief Hu Yaobang led to the Tiananmen demonstrations.

But this is unlikely to happen. The current leadership of Mr Hu and Mr Wen has remained popular since coming to power because of their policy of putting the people first.

More importantly, rapid economic growth over the past 15 years has brought significant improvement in the living standards of most mainlanders, a far cry from the late 1980s, which were characterised by runaway inflation and shortages of daily necessities.

But as the leadership calls for further reforms to enhance the rule of the party, the need for political reform as advocated by Zhao is becoming more urgent.

Since 1989, Zhao had lived under house arrest and was most remembered for his role at Tiananmen, which led to his downfall.

But he was a pioneer of economic and political reforms. His views on the economy, particularly in agriculture, influenced the policies of his successors.

In the short term, Mr Hu and Mr Wen are likely to maintain the policy of not talking about a reassessment of the Tiananmen protests and Zhao's role in them.

That is because any hint of official reassessment would likely have major political implications for their leadership while they are in the process of consolidating their hold on power.

However, they should make preparations for a reassessment in the medium or long term.

Many of the issues that prompted millions onto the streets in 1989 still exist today and are getting worse - widespread corruption, a widening gap between the rich and poor, and challenges to party legitimacy.

To tackle those problems, there should be no delay in carrying out political reforms and finding ways to strengthen the rule of law.

To push forward the reforms, the leadership should also be prepared to address the raw political wound that is unlikely to heal any time soon.

---

scmp- Tuesday, January 18, 2005

STAFF REPORTERS
Ousted reformist leader Zhao Ziyang , who spent 15 years under house arrest until his death yesterday morning, "is finally free", his daughter Wang Yannan said.

That is the message Ms Wang sent to close friends, as tributes poured in for the 85-year-old former general secretary of the Communist Party, who was purged for opposing the military crackdown against the pro-democracy movement in 1989.

"We are sincerely grateful for the support from all our friends," she said.

Zhao died at 7.01am, said one of his sons, Liang Fang, who adopted his mother's surname. Mr Liang said some national leaders had gone to pay their respects to his father, "but it is not convenient to say who they are".

Hong Kong-based human rights activist Frank Lu Siqing identified Vice-President Zeng Qinghong as one of the leaders who visited Zhao.

The family had yet to break the news to Zhao's wife, Liang Boqi , 86, Mr Lu said. "They are afraid it will break her heart."

The mood outside Zhao's home in Fuqiang Alley, Beijing, was subdued but calm. Half-a-dozen police cars were parked at the entrance to the alley and reporters who tried to approach the courtyard house were turned away.

There was no sign of public mourning in Beijing and except for a few old people who said they were sorry about Zhao's death, few people were aware he had died.

Except for a brief report by Xinhua yesterday morning, official media maintained an awkward silence about his death.

"Comrade Zhao [Ziyang] had long suffered from multiple diseases affecting his respiratory and cardiovascular systems, and had been hospitalised for medical treatment for several times," the official agency said.

"His conditions worsened recently, and he passed away on Monday after failing to respond to all emergency treatment."

Zhao was last seen in public on May 19, 1989, when he pleaded to students demonstrating in Tiananmen Square to leave. He was accompanied by Wen Jiabao , then the head of the General Office of the Communist Party. Zhao was removed as general secretary and held under virtual house arrest for the remainder of his life.

Former aides and colleagues lamented the passage of a "pioneer" and were saddened that the party leadership still held him responsible for "splitting the party" in 1989.

Xu Jiatun , former head of Xinhua in Hong Kong, who was forced into exile for siding with Zhao in 1989, issued a brief note to mark his friend's death.

"The news of Zhao Ziyang's death has caused me great sadness," wrote Mr Xu, who now lives in the US. "Ziyang was a great pioneer for China's reform enterprise. People and history will never forget the contributions he made for the Chinese people."

Bao Tong , Zhao's former aide whose communication with the outside has been severed for the past week, managed to release a brief comment saying Zhao's long years of house arrest were "a showcase of shame of Chinese justice and for the Chinese Communist Party itself".

Liu Xiaobao , a Beijing-based intellectual who used to work in one of Zhao's think-tanks, said he could not hold back his tears when he learned of the news. "I was devastated ... I wept and could not speak a word. I am a bit calmer now."

Mr Liu said Zhao was unique among mainland leaders because he was willing to sacrifice himself and his position for his beliefs.

"Among all Chinese leaders, he is the only one," he said.

Former student leader Wang Dan said he believed mainland leaders all agreed the crackdown was a mistake, but that did not mean Zhao's reputation would be restored anytime soon.

"I guess leaders like Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao and even Jiang Zemin and Deng Xiaoping all thought it was a mistake ... but political interests have kept them from admitting this mistake. So I am not optimistic about the restoration of those purged," Mr Wang said.

Beijing sources said a committee headed by President Hu and Politburo Standing Committee member Luo Gan would handle all issues related to Zhao's death.

A circular was also issued yesterday instructing all local government and party units to "closely adhere" to information released by the party central and to prevent circulation of "any hearsay".

However, the circular also pointed out that "voluntary public mourning" should not be stopped.

Most analysts believed Zhao's death would not trigger unrest but might spark calls for faster reform.

"The death of Zhao carries the danger and possibility of sparking a popular demand for political change and for re-evaluation of the Tiananmen crackdown," said Andrew Nathan, co-editor of The Tiananmen Papers.

---

scmp - Monday, January 17, 2005

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Beijing
Updated at 5.04pm:
The mainland’s coal industry, the most dangerous in the world, saw more than 6,000 workers die in mining accidents in 2004, state media reported on Monday.

The annual death toll decreased by a little over six per cent to 6,027 compared to 2003, Xinhua news reported, quoting Liang Jiakun, deputy director of the State Administration of Work Safety.

China recorded a total of 3,639 fatal coal mining accidents last year, a decrease of 16 per cent year-on-year, the official Xinhua news agency said.

Despite the slight decrease in the number of fatalities, China’s work safety record was still a grave problem, Mr Liang said.

“China has set the goal to reduce the fatalities in coal mines by three percent this year,” said Mr Liang.

“We will also try to eliminate any single coal mine accident causing 100 fatalities or more,” he added.

Mr Liang promised to try and prevent further accidents by bringing further improvements to the industry, which is well known for its atrocious safety record.

An ongoing power shortage in China has resulted in mines going into overdrive, often at the expense of safety standards. A spate of illegal and often dangerous mines have opened to cash in on rising coal prices.

China, which depends on coal for 70 percent of its energy, has the most dangerous mines in the world, with more than 6,000 to 7,000 workers killed each year, according to official figures.

However, independent estimates place the death toll at closer to 20,000, as mine operators often cover up accidents to avoid fines and costly shutdowns.

“We will suspend or close down any mine that fails to meet safety standards, and guard against capacity-exceeding production activities,” Mr Liang promised. The mainland will establish a national emergency rescue command centre, while mechanisms to ensure the quick and free flow of information during emergencies will also be implemented, said Xinhua.

---

scmp - Friday, January 14, 2005

REUTERS and BLOOMBERG in Jakarta
Indonesia yesterday gave a cool response to the Paris Club's decision to offer a temporary halt to debt repayments by countries hit by the tsunami.

Chief Economics Minister Aburizal Bakrie said the short-term freeze of Indonesia's foreign debt would free up cash to rebuild Aceh.

But he said Indonesia could get by without a long freeze, not least because money was pouring in from around the world to help countries get back on their feet.

"We don't need a long-term moratorium because we are getting funds from grants," he said. "We will rebuild Aceh from grants."

He said on Monday Indonesia expected western creditors to let it postpone up to US$3.3 billion in payments this year and next - about a third of the US$8.8 billion it is due to pay in the next two years.

Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda said he would welcome grants but a suspension of repayments may hurt the country's creditworthiness.

"We don't want, with all the good intentions, to see our interests harmed," Mr Wirayuda said. "Markets may read an offer wrongly, and this poses a danger to our creditworthiness."

The 19 members of the Paris Club of sovereign creditors have agreed to an initial suspension of payments for three months.

They made it clear the freeze, pending an assessment of reconstruction needs by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, could be extended.

Countries hit by the tsunami would not automatically have to start repaying their debts after the two financial institutions had issued their reports, Paris Club president Jean-Pierre Jouyet said.

Governments across the world have promised US$5.5 billion in aid for the affected countries, with individuals and corporations pledging at least US$2 billion more to the effort.

Sri Lanka, where nearly 31,000 people were killed, had hoped to secure at least a two-year debt moratorium and was still hoping for outright debt forgiveness, presidential spokesman Harim Peiris said.

"We recognise this is an interim measure and, after the assessments, further decisions on debt moratoriums or whatever may be taken," he said. "Debt forgiveness, a step beyond a moratorium, would be very welcome."

Colombo, which expects to spend US$476 million this year servicing its debts of US$8.82 billion, said reconstruction would cost about US$1.3 billion.

J.H.A. Jayamaha, a senior Finance Ministry official, said he had heard the freeze would last for only one year. "We will be much more comfortable if it is a much longer moratorium," he said.

Some countries, including Thailand, said they did not think a debt freeze was the best way to help them recover.

But French Finance Minister Herve Gaymard said he expected Indonesia, Sri Lanka and the Seychelles to accept the offer. "A moratorium is absolutely indispensable in order to allow the affected countries to overcome their immense difficulties," he said.

---

scmp - Friday, January 14, 2005

REUTERS in Manila
Nearly 2 million people around the Indian Ocean could be thrown into poverty as a result of the tsunami, the Asian Development Bank said yesterday.

While the overall effect on most economies would be minimal, and in some cases even beneficial, the Manila-based institution said its initial study showed the weakest in society would bear the economic brunt of the disaster.

"The poverty impact of the tsunami will be enormous," Asian Development Bank chief economist Ifzal Ali said. "Poverty is potentially the most important effect of this natural disaster."

The report said that 1 million people could fall below the poverty line in Indonesia alone, most in northern areas where more than 100,000 died.

The number of poor in India could rise by 645,000 and by 250,000 in Sri Lanka, the report found.

In the Maldives, where about half the island nation's houses were hit, more than 50 per cent of the population could end up in poverty.

About 300 million people in those countries were already living in poverty, defined as a maximum income of 25 US cents to 78 US cents a day, depending on the country.

Mr Ali said debt relief could be justified for Sri Lanka and the Maldives since economic growth in those countries was likely to be hit this year.

But he said "a word of caution would be in order" for bigger countries that want debt relief in addition to a freeze in debt payments.

"While there is immediate relief, it also sends out a very negative message to the markets," Mr Ali said.

The Asian Development Bank said that the economies of Sri Lanka and the Maldives were likely to be the worst affected, but other countries should be able to absorb the impact and even get a boost from reconstruction in rural areas that were hit hardest by the giant waves.

"Reconstruction from natural disasters requires new investment that should have a positive impact. And investment should translate into jobs," the report said.

"Therefore, it is possible that the overall economic impact of the tsunami could well end up being somewhat positive."

Other economists have also said that the impact of the tsunami on bigger economies such as Thailand and Indonesia would be minimal and probably less than the damage caused by Sars, bird flu and terrorism.

Mr Ali said about US$5.5 billion in aid pledged so far should be enough for this year.

But he cautioned that only a fraction of pledges had translated into disbursements in previous disasters.

Only a third of the US$8.7 billion in aid pledged after Hurricane Mitch hit Central America in 1998 had materialised, he said.

---

scmp - Thursday, January 13, 2005

Last week, Hong Kong was again basking in the glory of being labelled the world's freest economy, by the US-based Heritage Foundation. It is easy to be cynical about league tables of this sort, since they necessarily involve considerable subjectivity. One should also bear in mind that the producers of this particular study have an avowed mission to promote conservative public policies. However, their methodology is transparent and, although one might quibble endlessly about the details, the results seem plausible.

Anyway, the mantle of "the world's freest economy" is surely no more egregious than the government's own designations of Hong Kong as "City of life", "Asia's World City" or "Asia's cyber city for the cyber century" - the last appears on the government's website but, understandably, in view of the Cyberport experience, does not seem to be given much of an airing elsewhere.

The foundation's report (note that it is only about economic freedoms, not political ones) draws attention to a correlation across the globe, in broad terms, between its freedom index and standards of living, as measured by income per head in terms of purchasing power. The intended message is clear: freedom promotes prosperity. But freedom is not, of course, the sole determinant of prosperity. If it was, Hong Kong would be top of the standard-of-living table, too. But it is not. One might even mischievously turn this round to argue that Hong Kong is underperforming, relative to the potential which its supreme degree of freedom presents; there are other, less free economies which do better.

In fact, in the report there are 17 countries where living standards are higher than, or at least the same as, Hong Kong's, but which have inferior freedom ratings, albeit clustered towards the top end. This suggests that, beyond a certain point in the rankings, there may be little or nothing to be gained from advancing. Wherever you are in the top 20, the economy may perform just as well. On that basis, there should be no reason for Hong Kong to strain too hard to stay at the top, except, of course, for the pleasure of being ranked above Singapore in something.

It is also notable that, for all those 17 countries which match or out-perform Hong Kong in living standards, their inferior freedom ratings are in part explained by higher (worse) scores on "fiscal burden" (measured by reference to rates of salaries and profits tax, and growth of government spending); and more than half have higher scores on "government intervention" (defined as control over, or consumption of, resources).

This may indicate that higher taxation and greater government involvement in the economy can, within reasonable bounds, be a positive rather than a negative influence. Many would say that this is intuitively obvious, provided that revenue is sourced sensibly and spent wisely. For Hong Kong, this would imply that we need not necessarily shy away, behind a slogan of "small government", from broader or steeper taxes, or from, say, additional measures to assist the poor and disadvantaged, or to improve standards in health and education.

Thus, behind the headlines of the economic freedom accolade, there lurks the more subtle message that winning the Oscar is no more advantageous for one's economic performance than having merely been shortlisted. And, rather than providing proof of the purported benefits of Hong Kong's minimalist fiscal regime, the research actually suggests - although it is nowhere explicit - that Hong Kong may have some scope for higher taxation and government spending without necessarily damaging the economy. But the government, even if it agreed, might find it difficult to act on that, since its fiscal policy options are constrained by the rather conservative provisions of the Basic Law.

Tony Latter is a visiting professor at the University of Hong Kong.

---

scmp - Tuesday, January 11, 2005

STAFF REPORTER and SHI JIANGTAO
Beijing's proposed anti-secession law will make the fight against Taiwanese independence "the will of the state", an official report says.

Xinhua yesterday quoted a report in the latest issue of Ban Yue Tang magazine as saying the law was one of three new directions in Beijing's Taiwan policy.

The other two policy directions were pinning hope on the Taiwanese people, instead of the island's authorities, and warning Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian to choose between independence and war.

The law would also counter foreign support for Taiwanese independence, and stop other countries from interfering in China's domestic affairs, said the magazine, which devoted its first 2005 issue to the Taiwan issue.

Meanwhile, a Xinhua report has accused Taiwanese authorities of recruiting inexperienced spies to conduct espionage on the mainland.

Referring to four recent espionage cases in Zhejiang , the Beijing-based Global Times said officials in Taipei had paid little attention to the safety of their agents. The newspaper is run by the People's Daily, the Communist Party mouthpiece.

Four Taiwanese and one mainlander received jail sentences for spying between August and October, the Zhejiang Daily reported earlier. The four Taiwanese, identified as Chao Yung-yu, 53, Wu Che-ming, 36, Pei Chung-hao, 26, and Ke Jung-chun, 43, were sentenced to seven to 10 years in prison; while Zhejiang native Jin Shiyong - who was recruited by Pei - received a three-year term.

The spies were paid between NT$30,000 and NT$40,000 ($7,300-$9,700) a month by Taiwanese intelligence authorities, the report said.

However, by employing a large number of unprofessional people for espionage activities, the island had put their lives at risk, the report said.

---

scmp - Friday, January 7, 2005

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Washington and RAY CHEUNG
Beijing and Washington have held high-level talks on the mainland's proposed anti-secession law, which is aimed at preventing Taiwan from seeking formal independence.

Chen Yunlin , director of the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office, made a rare public visit to Washington on Wednesday and met US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage to discuss the controversial legislation.

The law is expected to be approved during the annual session of the National People's Congress in March. It would spell out what Beijing would consider a declaration of independent sovereignty by Taipei and provide legal justification for military action by the mainland.

"Their discussions will cover a variety of cross-strait issues, including the People's Republic of China's proposed anti-secession law," State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said before the meeting.

He said Mr Armitage would "obviously make clear our long-held and well-known view that the People's Republic of China and Taiwan should engage in dialogue to peacefully resolve their differences".

Mr Chen also met incoming National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley.

Taiwan's government-funded Central News Agency reported that Mr Chen's meeting with Mr Armitage lasted for an hour and was candid yet constructive.

US officials have not publicly criticised the law but have privately expressed reservations, saying it would be a destabilising factor in the Taiwan Strait.

It has been reported that the Bush administration believes Beijing's push for the law is a step too far, given America's recent efforts to tell Taiwan that Washington does not support the island's independence.

Last month, Mr Armitage said the US considered Taiwan a part of China and Washington was not obligated to defend the island.

The US also believes Beijing should begin a dialogue with Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian.

Beijing has repeatedly refused to negotiate with Mr Chen unless he accepts the one-China principle.

Shi Yinhong , director of the People's University Institute of American Studies, said Mr Chen's visit was aimed at showing Washington the law was only directed at Taiwanese independence and to explain why Beijing would not talk to Taipei unless it accepted the one-China principle.

"China wants the US to relax by explaining that we still seek a peaceful resolution to the Taiwan issue," said Professor Shi, who acknowledged the proposed legislation had produced some tension between Beijing and Washington.

The professor said experts in Beijing had concluded that Mr Chen would continue to push for Taiwanese independence.

---

scmp - Friday, January 7, 2005

SIMON PATKIN
There is currently a conflict going on in Hong Kong, we have been warned, that has the chance to rip apart the city politically, economically and socially. While people are taking to the streets, this is really a battle of ideas that has been brewing a while.

The trigger for the standoff was the Article 23 debates two years ago, which brought many middle-class people out to protest. Their demands were not support for mob rule through democracy but, rather, for accountable government and free speech. The liberal left has since hijacked this movement to promote unrestricted democracy and the rights of water, trees and fish over human life. Unleashed, they have already harmed our free market, including the humbling of the Hunghom developers and the postponement of the Link listing.

The Hunghom developers were forced to their knees because they ceded the moral ground to their antagonists. Indeed, many businesspeople today have caught "mad green disease". They blindly accept sacrifice to trees or the mob as good in theory, but reject it in the real world because it is seen as unworkable. They follow a philosophy of pragmatism, which is essentially the principle of not being principled. For them, this means trying to make money while pandering to the whims of the public - no matter how irrational. But this is an arbitrary, unprincipled standard, because once a business starts to pander to the irrational, it is heading down a slippery slope. Gradually, it cedes more and more, ending up using its opponents' ideas to guide decisions. This is what happened to the Hunghom developers. Objectively, the correct morality is one of principled, rational self-interest, and businesspeople must not cede this to anyone. The proper standard of moral value is not a tree, the state, or the mob but, rather, individual human life, with each person having the right and responsibility to sustain their own life. They have no right to the involuntary support of others. In addition, since our tool of survival is the use of reason, each individual must be free to use his or her own mind to sustain his or her own life.

One derivative moral principle is, then, that we must use our minds to reshape our environment so that we can survive in it. If we leave the land and trees alone, we cannot build houses and places to work. If we leave fish and animals alone, we restrict our food supply, limit our clothing choices and leave the vulnerable open to attack from wild beasts. Further, just as self-sacrifice is the ethical base of communism, fascism, socialism and environmentalism, the ethical basis for capitalism is rational self-interest. Capitalism is based on the ethical foundation that man (and woman) must be free to use his mind to express his thoughts and to produce things based on his own thinking. In this way, capitalism alone allows man to choose the values that he thinks will help sustain his life, to rationally create these goods or services and to keep the rewards. This is all the Hunghom developers wanted to do.

It is this system of morality that the state must protect by enshrining the right to life, liberty, property, free speech and the pursuit of happiness. There is no place for mob rule or green theory here - just limited accountable government. For companies, this morality includes protecting the rights of their shareholders above trees and animals to maximise profits.

Had the Hunghom developers accepted these ethics, they would have kept their moral right to redevelop intact. Had business supported and promoted rational self-interest, instead of donating to green groups, then the redevelopment of Hunghom and the Link listing might never have been issues. Rationality on all sides is the long-term answer to any threat to social, political or economic stability.

Simon Patkin is director of Capitalist Solutions, a free-market think-tank promoting the philosophy of rational self-interest in Hong Kong.

---

scmp - Friday, January 7, 2005

MEI NG
This year's Policy Address pledges to focus on poverty. It has been suggested that a poverty relief taskforce be set up to address concerns and safeguard the welfare of low-income families. Hong Kong's wealth gap is widening. The appropriate policy, and resources, are urgently needed. Our grass-roots workforce has contributed significantly to our economic growth and prosperity. But what have they got in return?

Depriving them of work opportunities while perpetuating market dominance and inequitable monopolies, our government has destroyed any remaining hope of deliverance for the thousands of jobless and dependent families. In other words, present government policies are robbing the poor to provide for the rich.

Take supermarkets as an example. The two largest chains are opening more and more branches, and ever-grander superstores. The range of products and services has gone beyond food, toiletries and daily necessities to include books, stationery, lighting, furniture, clothing, toys, computers and even mobile phones.

In the future, they may encroach on other businesses, such as hairdressers, home decoration, domestic-helper employment and travel agencies. What social impact will this expanding market dominance have on the small local retailers? At the moment, there are minimal regulations and little public protest over the price of food and other daily necessities. We are all at the mercy of the supermarket chains. Those on a low-income, or the unemployed, are the first to suffer from higher living costs.

How can small retailers and shopkeepers compete with the giant operators? Why has our government, and our politicians, turned a blind eye to the unfair monopolies and market dominance?

Poverty relief is cursed by policies that continue to rob the poor of equal opportunities. People-based governance is nothing but a sweetener. Is there more we can do to remove this curse?

Britain's Competition Commission conducted an investigation of the market dominance of UK supermarkets in 2000. Its findings triggered an intense community debate. Policy think-tanks and social concern groups questioned the laissez-faire attitude of the government by perpetuating market dominance and monopolistic practices that control the price and supply of food and daily necessities. To defend consumer rights and the livelihood of small retailers, the groups advocate setting up a fair-competition monitoring and regulatory regime which would look at possible over-dominance, and the expansion of mega-stores.

A decade ago, Hong Kong's Consumer Council researched and proposed a fair competition bill. It was later shelved due to government apathy and public pressure. Today, countless neighbourhood stores are either struggling to survive or being forced to close down. As a result, the number of jobless grows, and the social welfare list expands.

The vicious circle does not just stop there, either; there is also no opportunity for new business ventures. The curse continues.

Hong Kong's recycling industry can be sustained by an efficient and extensive waste-recovery system and collection network. Yet the two dominant supermarket chains have refused to even place recycling bins in their stores or reduce packaging.

Removing market dominance is the antidote to poverty. Good governance should involve defending fair competition and upholding equal opportunities. Robbing the poor to nourish the rich will only widen our wealth gap. A change of mentality by the Hong Kong government could prevent more social tragedies and instability.

Mei Ng is director of Friends of the Earth (HK).

---

scmp - Thursday, January 6, 2005

ASSOCIATED PRESS in Beijing
China's migrants now total 140 million, the government said on Thursday, making their numbers equal to the entire population of Bangladesh.

About 10 per cent of China's 1.3 billion people are on the move, having left rural or less developed areas for new opportunities in the cities and more prosperous coastal regions, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

China's migrant population, which was 70 million in 1973, hit 140 million in 2003, Xinhua said, citing the State Commission for Population and Family Planning. Bangladesh has 140 million people.

The vast numbers of migrants could make it hard for China to enforce its one child policy because of the difficulty of monitoring the births of migrant couples, the report said.

About 70 per cent of China's migrants are aged between 15 and 35, it said.

The scale of the movement dwarfs the so-called Great Atlantic Migration - said to be the largest mass migration in modern history.

Some 40 million Europeans went to the United States between 1820 and 1924, according to a migration website maintained by Leiden University in the Netherlands.

On the Net: http://www.let.leidenuniv.nl/history/migration

---

scmp - Thursday, January 6, 2005

Freedom is a value-laden concept. For those who subscribe to the philosophy of the right-leaning US-based Heritage Foundation, Hong Kong's number one ranking on its economic freedom index is a salutory achievement.

The city can be justly proud of its protection of property rights, free flow of capital, low taxes and low level of government intervention in the economy. As a free port that imposes no tariffs and subjects its export sector to international competition, Hong Kong's record is unblemished.

Unfortunately, however, if we continue to indulge in the belief that our economy is "free", as our officials do, we risk ignoring the endemic anti-competitive practices that plague the non-trade sectors of our economy.

For example, free trade is unable to secure us the best deal in the world when it comes to buying a flat. We are at the mercy of the property cartels that have a stranglehold on housing supply. They even decide who we can shop with as they also determine which supermarkets and convenience stores can operate in which estates. Lately, they have extended their dominance to the telecommunications sector through cross-bundling, as residents of Banyan Gardens have found after being virtually forced to sign up for services provided by a sister company of the estate's developer.

In the local fuel market, there are also just a few players who tend to adjust prices almost in unison. Last year, even the Hong Kong Kowloon Vermicelli and Noodle Manufacturing Industry Merchants' General Association and the Hong Kong Laundry Services Association openly called on operators to raise their prices together.

A decade ago, the Consumer Council pushed for the setting up of a competition authority, but was rebuffed by the government. As a concession, the government set up the Competition Policy Advisory Group to review competition-related issues. But although the committee is chaired by the financial secretary and comprises other senior officials, its effectiveness has been hampered by its advisory nature. It has no legal powers to investigate complaints or penalise parties engaged in anti-competitive behaviour. It merely refers complaints to relevant government departments, which address grievances by taking administrative measures to promote fair competition.

As research by Legislative Councillor Ronny Tong Ka-wah has found, international bodies (including the World Trade Organisation, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development, the International Monetary Fund and the European Parliament) have criticised our government for failing to effectively deal with anti-competitive behaviour.

It is time we acknowledged that Hong Kong consumers pay the price of anti-competitive practices, in the form of higher prices for the goods and services they buy.

---

scmp - Wednesday, January 5, 2005

WANG JIANWEI
The National People's Congress Standing Committee has begun a review of the proposed anti-secession law aimed at preventing Taiwan formally declaring political independence. For many cross-strait observers, Beijing's timing to widely publicise this legislation is puzzling. After all, following the opposition's unexpected victory in the Taiwan legislative election, it was anticipated that Beijing would feel relieved and might seize the opportunity to soften its policy towards Taiwan.

But, apparently, the mainland government took little comfort from the result. In a broad sense, Beijing's move represents a significant change in its approach to dealing with Taiwan. In the past, officials were often criticised for lacking initiative and responding in a "too little, too late" fashion to Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian and the Democratic Progressive Party's dazzling political manoeuvres. Now, Beijing is determined to take the driver's seat in cross-strait relations by pre-empting rather than reacting to anticipated policy moves.

The proposed anti-secession law also indicates a subtle change in Beijing's priority in its Taiwan policy. Political reality in Taiwan has forced the Chinese leadership to realise that the goal of unification is unattainable in the short term. The more immediate and urgent challenge for officials in Beijing is to thwart Mr Chen's schedule for independence. That is one of the reasons why the title of the proposed legislation was changed from unification law to anti-secession law.

It is on the issue of anti-independence that Beijing perceives some common interest with the US. Although many Chinese are still sceptical that the United States would ever be willing to see mainland unification with Taiwan, they are convinced that Washington does not want to see Taiwan move too far towards independence because this would drag the US into a disastrous military confrontation. In this regard, the recent comments by senior US State Department officials to more explicitly endorse Taiwan as part of China and lay out clearer limitations of the US commitment to defend Taiwan certainly pleased Chinese leaders. Ironically, Beijing's pre-emptive move is a result of learning from Washington and Taipei. It witnessed with dismay that Washington often put the Taiwan Relations Act above the three communiqués in dealing with Beijing. The referendum law passed by Taiwan last year also alarmed mainland leaders. Although the current referendum law does not cover issues related to unification or independence, it could always be revised. Another purpose of the anti-secession law, therefore, is to level the playing field among the three sides. Pundits in Washington and Taipei jumped the gun by claiming that the proposed law is a provocative action to change the cross-strait status quo. It does not have to be that way. Indeed, crafted wisely, it could function to preserve the status quo by creating a new triangular-style system of checks and balances, with each side possessing a legal "lethal weapon" to punish another's misbehaviour.

Washington could use the Taiwan Relations Act to deter the mainland's unprovoked use of force against Taiwan. Beijing could evoke the anti-secession law to prevent Taiwan getting out of hand. Taipei could use the referendum law as a last resort to formally separate if Beijing launched an unprovoked attack. Thus, a fragile but viable status quo might be sustained in the Taiwan Strait. While this is not ideal, it is, nevertheless, in the interests of all three parties.

Wang Jianwei is a professor in and chair of the political science department at the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. He is also a guest professor at the School of International and Public Affairs at Fudan University in Shanghai.

---

scmp - Wednesday, January 5, 2005

RAY CHEUNG
The director of the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office, Chen Yunlin , was due to arrive in Washington last night to explain Beijing's rationale for the proposed anti-secession law.

State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said Mr Chen would meet several US officials, including having a session with Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, tomorrow.

Washington has so far not expressed any official opposition to the proposed anti-secession law, which would define what Beijing considers to be a formal declaration of independence by Taiwan and establish a legal basis to use force to prevent such a move.

But US officials have privately criticised the law as being counterproductive to cross-strait stability.

---

scmp - Wednesday, January 5, 2005


The decision to debate a draft anti-secession law during the annual session of the National People's Congress in March shows that Beijing is serious about taking action to curb Taiwan's steady move towards political independence.

While the text of the draft legislation has not been made available, the description of the law itself is significant. Last year, attention focused on a supposed unification law, which would have compelled Taiwan to reunify with the mainland, possibly by a certain date, after which the use of force would be justified.

However, the choice of the word "anti-secession" rather than "unification" suggests that this law is meant to preserve rather than change the status quo. That is to say, in Beijing's eyes, the current situation is already that of "one China", a conceptual entity that includes both the mainland and Taiwan. Thus, the anti-secession law presumably is meant to maintain the current situation by deterring Taiwan from breaking away.

Such a shift reflects awareness of Washington's emphasis on maintenance of the status quo. The US has repeatedly said that it is opposed to either Taiwan or the mainland attempting unilaterally to change it. So Beijing may well be trying to lock in its own definition of the status quo through the passage of this legislation.

The high priority accorded to Taiwan policy was also reflected in the latest Chinese defence white paper. Released on December 26, it is the fifth in a series of such papers since 1985 and is intended to illustrate China's national defence policies. This one accords Taiwan a higher priority than ever before.

"The separatist activities of the `Taiwan independence' forces have increasingly become the biggest threat to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as peace and stability on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole," the white paper said. It described the cross-strait situation as "grim".

Beijing is alarmed by President Chen Shui-bian's intention to forge an independent Taiwan, including his plan to draft a new constitution and to have it approved in a referendum. Mr Chen has also been pushing a movement to "de-Sinicise" Taiwan, by changing the names of state-owned corporations that include the word "China", such as China Airlines.

Ironically, on this issue, both Taiwan and Beijing have reversed their stand of previous decades. In the 1970s and 1980s, for example, when both Beijing and Taipei claimed to be the sole legitimate government of all China, the mainland government sought to deny Taiwan the right to use the name "China". Now, however, Beijing criticises Taiwan for replacing the word "China" with "Taiwan" in the names of its agencies and corporations. Similarly, in the past, Beijing did all it could to prevent the use of the name "Republic of China". But now that Taipei wants to be rid of that name and replace it with "Taiwan", Beijing has decided that it is not so bad after all, as it at least acknowledges that the island and its people are Chinese.

The shift in position reflects Taiwan's abandonment of the competition with Beijing for international recognition as the rightful Chinese government. It also reflects Beijing's fear that Taiwan may be permanently separated if it pursues the goal of becoming an independent country.

The two sides' willingness to work with one another will be highlighted in the next few weeks, as attempts are made to organise chartered flights to enable mainland-based Taiwan businesspeople to return home for the Lunar New Year holidays next month. Such flights were arranged in 2003, but attempts to organise them last year fell through because of political and other disputes.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator.

---

scmp - Tuesday, January 4, 2005


SHI JIANGTAO
The Communist Party should run the country in accordance with the law, instead of substituting itself for the government, China's chief justice has said.

In an article published by Qiushi magazine, Supreme People's Court president Xiao Yang said it was important that the party acted under - and not above - the constitution and laws.


"The rule of law means the party and its representatives should enter different levels of the country's political organs according to the constitution and laws, and to fulfil its responsibilities to lead and support the people to be masters of the country," he said.

Mr Xiao stressed the need to define the relationship between the Communist Party's leadership and the administration, as well as state power.

This would provide an institutional structure for the way the party ran the country.

"The party should assume overall responsibility but not all-encompassing control. The party should work within the framework of the constitution and law instead of going beyond them, or even putting itself above them," he wrote.

While emphasising the party's leadership over the judicial system, Mr Xiao acknowledged that current reforms faced many challenges.

The "unscientific" design of the judicial system made it hard to free it from the influence and constraints of exterior factors and local authorities' interests.

"Judicial activities are often subject to interference ... and a lack of professionalism is a common problem in the judiciary," he said.

Peking University legal scholar Jiang Mingan noted that Mr Xiao's article was based on a message delivered by President Hu Jintao at the fourth plenum of the party's 16th central committee last September.

Professor Jiang said that of all the measures aimed at enhancing the party's ability to govern championed by President Hu, rule of law was the most important step towards bringing the party under the constitution.

"This is not the time to argue whether the party should accept the rule of law. It is a must. Otherwise, its ruling position will be further threatened by its weakening authority and increasing dissatisfaction among the people over rampant corruption," he said.

The construction of a market-oriented economy, which educated the public about the importance of the rule of law, also made the leadership realise the urgency of consolidating its governance by introducing a more democratic system.

Professor Jiang hailed the move to encourage party cadres to take leadership posts in governments and local people's congresses as a significant step in political reforms.

"We have seen so many cases of corrupt party cadres. A main reason for widespread official corruption and popular dissatisfaction is the party leadership not being subject to the supervision of law and the people," he said.

---

scmp - Friday, December 31, 2004

VIVIEN CUI
The gender gap among children born on the mainland has widened to become a "critical national issue", says All-China Women's Federation chairwoman Gu Xiulian , who has urged authorities to adapt their family planning policies to counter the trend.

Ms Gu, also a vice-chairwoman of the National People's Congress, delivered the damning assessment yesterday in her speech at Beijing's Foreign Affairs University.

"During the years since China embraced the one-child policy as a principal national policy, we have only paid attention to ways to dispense with the second child, but we ignored who was given up," Ms Gu said.

"Now state leaders have realised the critical nature of the situation and are making new policies to curb the imbalance." Since the mid-1980s, the gender ratio among mainland newborns has exceeded norms set by the United Nations.

The UN maintains that under natural conditions, for every 100 girls born, there should be 103 to 107 boys. But on the mainland, the 2000 national census found there were 116.9 newborn boys for every 100 girls. The imbalance is greatest in rural areas, where there were 119.3 newborn boys for every 100 girls in 2000, compared with 113.2 in urban centres.

According to the census report, parents who had sought approval for the birth of second and third children were more likely to opt for selective abortions to ensure the offspring was male. The central government has launched a campaign to promote the message that "girls are as good as boys".

---