For hire: political protesters
SCMP - Thursday, January 29, 2004
DAN EATON of Reuters
In a slum just a stone's throw from the gaudy mansions of Indonesia's elite, Rizal trades in human flesh and misery.
Angry students, the urban poor, the rural poor, supporters, opposers, all can be arranged for a price.
"Over the years, I've had orders for people from the parties of two presidents, but I'll work for anyone," says the 30-year-old Jakarta man, one of thousands of Indonesians who make a living arranging mobs.
In the world's fourth most populous country, politics has traditionally been about crowds - huge, noisy and sometimes violent masses.
Mr Rizal's business has blossomed since mobs took to the streets in 1998, ousting former autocratic president Suharto and giving birth to a shaky democracy.
"Under Suharto, of course, demonstrations were not allowed. You'd be arrested and put in jail," said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a political analyst and former presidential adviser.
Because political rallies and political campaigns in Indonesia are still mass based, rather than rooted in issues, some parties need to reassure themselves and their competitors that they have followers, so they rent mobs, she said. "It's become a business ... Not all crowds are rented, but it shows political shallowness and economic need."
And it's an industry many see getting a boost from the country's first democratic presidential elections this year.
Manoeuvring is already under way to line up slates, and the cast of characters is colourful to say the least. One party has the ailing Suharto's business mogul daughter at the top.
Three others are headed by daughters of Indonesia's first president Sukarno - including incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri. A blind cleric and former president thrown out for alleged incompetence heads another party, while a politician appealing against a fraud conviction leads one of the strongest. Few Indonesians expect a clean fight. With an air of despondency, the Jakarta Post said in a recent editorial: "What leaders we have today have been groomed over the last 20 years, and a rotten regime breeds rotten leaders."
Twenty-four parties have the green light to participate, virtually guaranteeing that no party will win a parliamentary majority on April 5 and that the presidential race in July will go to a runoff. Analysts say large rallies are a certainty and some fear the tension could spur violence, as happened on the resort island of Bali in October, when two people were killed and vehicles torched in a clash between supporters of the country's two main parties.
New arrivals in the capital of the sprawling nation of about 17,000 islands and 210 million people are struck by the vast number of demonstrations. "Demos", as they are known locally, take place almost daily, snarling traffic as crowds march and wave banners.
What is not immediately obvious to the casual observer is that many are carefully stage-managed pieces of political theatre rather than expressions of ordinary Indonesians' aspirations.
"If a politician disagrees with another, he organises a protest," said Mr Rizal, dressed in blue jeans, a green T-shirt and flip-flops.
He said he believed 2004 will be a good year. "Lots of political parties and many, many candidates," he said. "I can smell the money, but I'm very worried that, with all those competing factions, there will be clashes."
Mr Rizal said one mob organiser he knew had already had his first election-related job, helping to create a virtual crowd by buying supporters' identities for one political party so it could meet the threshold required to run candidates.
"Students can be a good source of income, too. A recent job I had was for university students who wanted to protest corruption outside the attorney-general's office. They wanted 100 people."
As a professional go-between, he said, he receives "orders". He can rustle up 100 demonstrators at a moment's notice, or, given more time and working with others in the business, he can lay on a cast of thousands.
Dozens of Jakarta slums and even whole villages outside the capital have become fertile recruiting grounds.
Demonstrators receive anything from 15,000 rupiah (HK$14) to 50,000 rupiah each, a boxed lunch and a bottle of water before being loaded into buses or trucks and driven to the demo site, where they are given banners to wave and headbands or T-shirts. If everything goes smoothly, they disperse - or are dispersed by club-wielding police - a few hours later.
"It's the responsibility of the person ordering the protest to pay the medical bills," said Mr Rizal. "I don't think it's wrong. People choose to sell their support because they are poor and need the money."
Additional reporting by Telly Nathalia.
DAN EATON of Reuters
In a slum just a stone's throw from the gaudy mansions of Indonesia's elite, Rizal trades in human flesh and misery.
Angry students, the urban poor, the rural poor, supporters, opposers, all can be arranged for a price.
"Over the years, I've had orders for people from the parties of two presidents, but I'll work for anyone," says the 30-year-old Jakarta man, one of thousands of Indonesians who make a living arranging mobs.
In the world's fourth most populous country, politics has traditionally been about crowds - huge, noisy and sometimes violent masses.
Mr Rizal's business has blossomed since mobs took to the streets in 1998, ousting former autocratic president Suharto and giving birth to a shaky democracy.
"Under Suharto, of course, demonstrations were not allowed. You'd be arrested and put in jail," said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a political analyst and former presidential adviser.
Because political rallies and political campaigns in Indonesia are still mass based, rather than rooted in issues, some parties need to reassure themselves and their competitors that they have followers, so they rent mobs, she said. "It's become a business ... Not all crowds are rented, but it shows political shallowness and economic need."
And it's an industry many see getting a boost from the country's first democratic presidential elections this year.
Manoeuvring is already under way to line up slates, and the cast of characters is colourful to say the least. One party has the ailing Suharto's business mogul daughter at the top.
Three others are headed by daughters of Indonesia's first president Sukarno - including incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri. A blind cleric and former president thrown out for alleged incompetence heads another party, while a politician appealing against a fraud conviction leads one of the strongest. Few Indonesians expect a clean fight. With an air of despondency, the Jakarta Post said in a recent editorial: "What leaders we have today have been groomed over the last 20 years, and a rotten regime breeds rotten leaders."
Twenty-four parties have the green light to participate, virtually guaranteeing that no party will win a parliamentary majority on April 5 and that the presidential race in July will go to a runoff. Analysts say large rallies are a certainty and some fear the tension could spur violence, as happened on the resort island of Bali in October, when two people were killed and vehicles torched in a clash between supporters of the country's two main parties.
New arrivals in the capital of the sprawling nation of about 17,000 islands and 210 million people are struck by the vast number of demonstrations. "Demos", as they are known locally, take place almost daily, snarling traffic as crowds march and wave banners.
What is not immediately obvious to the casual observer is that many are carefully stage-managed pieces of political theatre rather than expressions of ordinary Indonesians' aspirations.
"If a politician disagrees with another, he organises a protest," said Mr Rizal, dressed in blue jeans, a green T-shirt and flip-flops.
He said he believed 2004 will be a good year. "Lots of political parties and many, many candidates," he said. "I can smell the money, but I'm very worried that, with all those competing factions, there will be clashes."
Mr Rizal said one mob organiser he knew had already had his first election-related job, helping to create a virtual crowd by buying supporters' identities for one political party so it could meet the threshold required to run candidates.
"Students can be a good source of income, too. A recent job I had was for university students who wanted to protest corruption outside the attorney-general's office. They wanted 100 people."
As a professional go-between, he said, he receives "orders". He can rustle up 100 demonstrators at a moment's notice, or, given more time and working with others in the business, he can lay on a cast of thousands.
Dozens of Jakarta slums and even whole villages outside the capital have become fertile recruiting grounds.
Demonstrators receive anything from 15,000 rupiah (HK$14) to 50,000 rupiah each, a boxed lunch and a bottle of water before being loaded into buses or trucks and driven to the demo site, where they are given banners to wave and headbands or T-shirts. If everything goes smoothly, they disperse - or are dispersed by club-wielding police - a few hours later.
"It's the responsibility of the person ordering the protest to pay the medical bills," said Mr Rizal. "I don't think it's wrong. People choose to sell their support because they are poor and need the money."
Additional reporting by Telly Nathalia.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Renminbi will remain stable this year: chief economist
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Updated at 3.57pm:
China will keep its currency stable this year and has no plans to change the renminbi's peg to the dollar, a chief economist said on Tuesday.
"I feel the renminbi (RMB) still needs to be stable. Stability is beneficial. It's beneficial to Asia, to the world," said Yao Jingyuan, chief economist and spokesman for China's National Bureau of Statistics.
Asked whether the currency will definitely remain stable, Yao told reporters: "Definitely."
Pushed on whether there were plans to adjust the exchange rate, he said: "No."
He was speaking at the end of a press conference in which the bureau revealed China's gross domestic product grew by 9.1 per cent in 2003.
State media had reported in December that China's central bank was quietly moving ahead with a plan to peg the yuan (renminbi) to a basket of 10 currencies, instead of the US dollar alone.
A prospective 10 currencies would represent China's largest trade partners as well as its main sources of investment, the China Business Post reported, citing sources with the People's Bank of China.
At a later phase China could eventually allow a "managed float" that would permit the currency to move within a set range, the report said.
The report gave no timetable for implementation of either phase and stressed that the potential policy change was still being studied.
China has effectively pegged the yuan at about 8.3 to one dollar since 1994 but it has come under increasing pressure, particularly from the United States, to revalue.
Washington politicians insist the yuan is substantially undervalued, contributing to a mounting Chinese trade surplus with the US and the loss of American jobs.
US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and many independent economists have rejected those claims.
The newspaper also quoted a central bank analyst as saying that the yuan was not undervalued by 20 to 40 per cent as some foreign economists maintain, with any link of the yuan to a basket of currencies likely to lead to only a modest increase in the local currency's value.
Renminbi will remain stable this year: chief economist
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Updated at 3.57pm:
China will keep its currency stable this year and has no plans to change the renminbi's peg to the dollar, a chief economist said on Tuesday.
"I feel the renminbi (RMB) still needs to be stable. Stability is beneficial. It's beneficial to Asia, to the world," said Yao Jingyuan, chief economist and spokesman for China's National Bureau of Statistics.
Asked whether the currency will definitely remain stable, Yao told reporters: "Definitely."
Pushed on whether there were plans to adjust the exchange rate, he said: "No."
He was speaking at the end of a press conference in which the bureau revealed China's gross domestic product grew by 9.1 per cent in 2003.
State media had reported in December that China's central bank was quietly moving ahead with a plan to peg the yuan (renminbi) to a basket of 10 currencies, instead of the US dollar alone.
A prospective 10 currencies would represent China's largest trade partners as well as its main sources of investment, the China Business Post reported, citing sources with the People's Bank of China.
At a later phase China could eventually allow a "managed float" that would permit the currency to move within a set range, the report said.
The report gave no timetable for implementation of either phase and stressed that the potential policy change was still being studied.
China has effectively pegged the yuan at about 8.3 to one dollar since 1994 but it has come under increasing pressure, particularly from the United States, to revalue.
Washington politicians insist the yuan is substantially undervalued, contributing to a mounting Chinese trade surplus with the US and the loss of American jobs.
US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and many independent economists have rejected those claims.
The newspaper also quoted a central bank analyst as saying that the yuan was not undervalued by 20 to 40 per cent as some foreign economists maintain, with any link of the yuan to a basket of currencies likely to lead to only a modest increase in the local currency's value.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Food aid cut to 2.7m North Koreans as donations slump
ASSOCIATED PRESS in Beijing
The World Food Programme has been forced to cut food aid to 2.7 million North Korean women and children during the country's harsh winter due to lack of foreign donations.
The programme received new promises of aid from the United States, European Union and Australia after warning last month of an impending crisis, but those supplies could take up to three months to arrive, spokesman Gerald Bourke said yesterday.
The food crisis coincides with efforts to arrange new talks on the standoff over North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Despite diplomatic tensions, two leading critics of the North's nuclear programme - the United States and South Korea - are among its biggest food donors.
Aid shortfalls forced the programme to start cutting food distributions last month to some of its 4.2 million "core beneficiaries" - children, pregnant women and elderly people, said Mr Bourke, who works for the agency's Beijing office.
"In January, 2.7 million of our `core beneficiaries' are not being fed," he said. Last month, he said, "there were quite a few people we were not able to feed".
North Korea's isolated Stalinist regime has relied on foreign aid to feed its people since it revealed in the mid-1990s that its state-run farming industry had collapsed following decades of mismanagement and the loss of Soviet subsidies.
It is not clear how the people cut from food programmes are surviving, although some might receive small rations from the North's own harvests last autumn of rice and corn, Mr Bourke said.
This year, the North's harvests are expected to fall 1 million tonnes - or about 20 per cent - short of what it needs, according to aid agencies. They say they cannot foresee a time when the North will be able to feed itself without outside help.
The latest cutbacks come as temperatures in the North drop below freezing - aggravated by lack of fuel for heat and lighting.
Daytime highs this week in the capital, Pyongyang, are forecast as low as minus 14 degrees Celsius. "North Korean winters are very cold. This one is no exception," Mr Bourke said. "When you're hungry and cold, things are terrible."
The food programme appealed last month for emergency donations, saying that without more aid, the number of North Koreans cut from its programmes could swell to 3.8 million by the end of the winter.
Last month, the United States pledged 60,000 tonnes of food, the equivalent of six weeks' supply for the World Food Programme, Mr Bourke said. The EU promised €4.2 million (HK$40.4 million), enough to buy 9,700 tonnes of aid, and Australia also promised a donation. However, it can take three months for supplies shipped from the United States to reach North Korea, Mr Bourke said.
"Until we know when the food is going to be shipped, it's hard to know the impact," he said.
Programme officials have struggled in recent years to meet aid targets for the North, getting as little as 60 per cent of the food - mostly rice and other grain - that they need each year. Their target for this year is 485,000 tonnes of donations.
A key issue for foreign donors has been the North's restrictions on the ability of foreign agencies to monitor who receives food aid.
Food aid cut to 2.7m North Koreans as donations slump
ASSOCIATED PRESS in Beijing
The World Food Programme has been forced to cut food aid to 2.7 million North Korean women and children during the country's harsh winter due to lack of foreign donations.
The programme received new promises of aid from the United States, European Union and Australia after warning last month of an impending crisis, but those supplies could take up to three months to arrive, spokesman Gerald Bourke said yesterday.
The food crisis coincides with efforts to arrange new talks on the standoff over North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Despite diplomatic tensions, two leading critics of the North's nuclear programme - the United States and South Korea - are among its biggest food donors.
Aid shortfalls forced the programme to start cutting food distributions last month to some of its 4.2 million "core beneficiaries" - children, pregnant women and elderly people, said Mr Bourke, who works for the agency's Beijing office.
"In January, 2.7 million of our `core beneficiaries' are not being fed," he said. Last month, he said, "there were quite a few people we were not able to feed".
North Korea's isolated Stalinist regime has relied on foreign aid to feed its people since it revealed in the mid-1990s that its state-run farming industry had collapsed following decades of mismanagement and the loss of Soviet subsidies.
It is not clear how the people cut from food programmes are surviving, although some might receive small rations from the North's own harvests last autumn of rice and corn, Mr Bourke said.
This year, the North's harvests are expected to fall 1 million tonnes - or about 20 per cent - short of what it needs, according to aid agencies. They say they cannot foresee a time when the North will be able to feed itself without outside help.
The latest cutbacks come as temperatures in the North drop below freezing - aggravated by lack of fuel for heat and lighting.
Daytime highs this week in the capital, Pyongyang, are forecast as low as minus 14 degrees Celsius. "North Korean winters are very cold. This one is no exception," Mr Bourke said. "When you're hungry and cold, things are terrible."
The food programme appealed last month for emergency donations, saying that without more aid, the number of North Koreans cut from its programmes could swell to 3.8 million by the end of the winter.
Last month, the United States pledged 60,000 tonnes of food, the equivalent of six weeks' supply for the World Food Programme, Mr Bourke said. The EU promised €4.2 million (HK$40.4 million), enough to buy 9,700 tonnes of aid, and Australia also promised a donation. However, it can take three months for supplies shipped from the United States to reach North Korea, Mr Bourke said.
"Until we know when the food is going to be shipped, it's hard to know the impact," he said.
Programme officials have struggled in recent years to meet aid targets for the North, getting as little as 60 per cent of the food - mostly rice and other grain - that they need each year. Their target for this year is 485,000 tonnes of donations.
A key issue for foreign donors has been the North's restrictions on the ability of foreign agencies to monitor who receives food aid.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Tung's choice
STEVE TSANG
When Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa publicly admitted that President Hu Jintao had told him political reform in Hong Kong could only be pursued after prior consultation with Beijing, it appeared China had reversed its policy of non-interference in Hong Kong's affairs following the 1997 handover. In reality, it merely shows that the mainland government is seriously concerned about developments in Hong Kong and has lost confidence in Mr Tung's ability to govern.
Beijing's basic policy towards Hong Kong has been consistent, before and after 1997: to exercise maximum flexibility within a rigid framework. The objective is to make "one country, two systems" work, in order to advance economic reform. Above all though, Chinese sovereignty over Hong Kong and the Communist Party's rule in China must be upheld. As long as this is not challenged, the party is prepared to allow Hong Kong maximum freedom.
This means Beijing has never given up its veto over any fundamental change in the special administrative region. The real difference is that before now, it has not needed to reaffirm the policy in public.
The need has arisen because of the spectacular failure of Mr Tung and his administration. Their inability to introduce the Article 23 legislation, and to warn Beijing about the 500,000-strong demonstration on July 1, shocked the Chinese leadership. The subsequent transformation of the anti-subversion legislation protest into a sustained demand for democratisation caused further alarm. The march by 100,000 people on New Year's Day hammered home the serious and sustained nature of this demand. The Chinese government is acting now because it feels it can no longer rely on Mr Tung to keep the SAR on an even keel.
The public is faced with the choice of supporting democratisation or avoiding a head-on collision with Beijing. But this is not only because of the central government's policy, it is also because of the failure of local pro-democracy political parties to provide leadership or a plan to make the most of the "maximum flexibility" in Beijing's policy, without encroaching on its rigid framework.
The public must understand that the pace and scope of democratisation is of great concern to China's leaders, for two reasons. First, they fear an injection of uncertainty into Hong Kong politics if parties they deem unsound win power. Second, they worry about the effect democratisation may have elsewhere in China.
For the Chinese leadership to accept the direct election of the chief executive in 2007 or the Legislative Council in 2008, it must feel that the rigid framework underpinning its Hong Kong policy will not be breached. It will also need to be persuaded that the only way to restore the Hong Kong government's credibility is if it gets a mandate locally, through a democratic electoral process, and that Beijing will have less to lose by accepting this than by letting the political rot continue under the Tung administration.
Hong Kong's democratic parties must find a scheme that will advance democracy and yet reassure the inherently anti-democratic Communist Party. One option is to accept that in 2007, while the chief executive should be directly elected, the candidates can be chosen by the committee of 800 acting as an electoral college and being required to put forward, say, three names for direct election. Such a compromise may be repugnant to liberal democrats, but it would be critical in gaining Beijing's acquiescence.
Regarding a possible knock-on effect in other parts of the country, advocates of democracy must convince Beijing that they will not export the democratic experience. They must demonstrate that they understand "one country, two systems" is meant to be a utilitarian principle and will not be used to undermine the party's authority.
There are other ways to finesse a compromise that will advance democracy in Hong Kong without provoking a defensive reaction from Beijing. The democratic parties must use their ingenuity to explore them. For starters, they should study Hong Kong's history, the nature of China's politics and its policy towards Hong Kong. While Hong Kong must look forward, it can only do so wisely by studying its own history to avoid a repeat of past mistakes.
In taking Hong Kong forward, Mr Tung can make a major contribution - by resigning and allowing a replacement to be found so that Beijing can regain confidence in the capacity of the SAR government to do its job. One key element of the political reality is that the greater confidence Beijing has that its interests are not being challenged, the greater scope it will give Hong Kong in its domestic affairs. Mr Tung should realise by now that there is little else he can do for Hong Kong. As former president Jiang Zemin's appointee, Mr Tung will not be sacked by Mr Hu as this would upset the delicate balance of power between the two men, reached at the 16th party congress.
For Hong Kong to have the chance of a better future, Mr Tung can do no better than quit. He should choose a time and manner that will enable him to keep his dignity - and win back some respect.
Steve Tsang is reader of politics at St Antony's College, Oxford and the author of a new book, A Modern History of Hong Kong, published by I.B. Tauris and the Hong Kong University Press.
Tung's choice
STEVE TSANG
When Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa publicly admitted that President Hu Jintao had told him political reform in Hong Kong could only be pursued after prior consultation with Beijing, it appeared China had reversed its policy of non-interference in Hong Kong's affairs following the 1997 handover. In reality, it merely shows that the mainland government is seriously concerned about developments in Hong Kong and has lost confidence in Mr Tung's ability to govern.
Beijing's basic policy towards Hong Kong has been consistent, before and after 1997: to exercise maximum flexibility within a rigid framework. The objective is to make "one country, two systems" work, in order to advance economic reform. Above all though, Chinese sovereignty over Hong Kong and the Communist Party's rule in China must be upheld. As long as this is not challenged, the party is prepared to allow Hong Kong maximum freedom.
This means Beijing has never given up its veto over any fundamental change in the special administrative region. The real difference is that before now, it has not needed to reaffirm the policy in public.
The need has arisen because of the spectacular failure of Mr Tung and his administration. Their inability to introduce the Article 23 legislation, and to warn Beijing about the 500,000-strong demonstration on July 1, shocked the Chinese leadership. The subsequent transformation of the anti-subversion legislation protest into a sustained demand for democratisation caused further alarm. The march by 100,000 people on New Year's Day hammered home the serious and sustained nature of this demand. The Chinese government is acting now because it feels it can no longer rely on Mr Tung to keep the SAR on an even keel.
The public is faced with the choice of supporting democratisation or avoiding a head-on collision with Beijing. But this is not only because of the central government's policy, it is also because of the failure of local pro-democracy political parties to provide leadership or a plan to make the most of the "maximum flexibility" in Beijing's policy, without encroaching on its rigid framework.
The public must understand that the pace and scope of democratisation is of great concern to China's leaders, for two reasons. First, they fear an injection of uncertainty into Hong Kong politics if parties they deem unsound win power. Second, they worry about the effect democratisation may have elsewhere in China.
For the Chinese leadership to accept the direct election of the chief executive in 2007 or the Legislative Council in 2008, it must feel that the rigid framework underpinning its Hong Kong policy will not be breached. It will also need to be persuaded that the only way to restore the Hong Kong government's credibility is if it gets a mandate locally, through a democratic electoral process, and that Beijing will have less to lose by accepting this than by letting the political rot continue under the Tung administration.
Hong Kong's democratic parties must find a scheme that will advance democracy and yet reassure the inherently anti-democratic Communist Party. One option is to accept that in 2007, while the chief executive should be directly elected, the candidates can be chosen by the committee of 800 acting as an electoral college and being required to put forward, say, three names for direct election. Such a compromise may be repugnant to liberal democrats, but it would be critical in gaining Beijing's acquiescence.
Regarding a possible knock-on effect in other parts of the country, advocates of democracy must convince Beijing that they will not export the democratic experience. They must demonstrate that they understand "one country, two systems" is meant to be a utilitarian principle and will not be used to undermine the party's authority.
There are other ways to finesse a compromise that will advance democracy in Hong Kong without provoking a defensive reaction from Beijing. The democratic parties must use their ingenuity to explore them. For starters, they should study Hong Kong's history, the nature of China's politics and its policy towards Hong Kong. While Hong Kong must look forward, it can only do so wisely by studying its own history to avoid a repeat of past mistakes.
In taking Hong Kong forward, Mr Tung can make a major contribution - by resigning and allowing a replacement to be found so that Beijing can regain confidence in the capacity of the SAR government to do its job. One key element of the political reality is that the greater confidence Beijing has that its interests are not being challenged, the greater scope it will give Hong Kong in its domestic affairs. Mr Tung should realise by now that there is little else he can do for Hong Kong. As former president Jiang Zemin's appointee, Mr Tung will not be sacked by Mr Hu as this would upset the delicate balance of power between the two men, reached at the 16th party congress.
For Hong Kong to have the chance of a better future, Mr Tung can do no better than quit. He should choose a time and manner that will enable him to keep his dignity - and win back some respect.
Steve Tsang is reader of politics at St Antony's College, Oxford and the author of a new book, A Modern History of Hong Kong, published by I.B. Tauris and the Hong Kong University Press.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Basic Law, basic facts
MICHAEL DAVIS
Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's policy address has set Hong Kong on a likely collision course over democracy. Paradoxically, the Hong Kong and central governments, pro-Beijing supporters and the democratic camp all cite the Basic Law as their guide. It clearly allows for democratic development from 2007, leaving the public to wonder what the problems are. Are they legal or political?
The government has set up a taskforce and plans to consult Beijing on several legal issues. These include whether changes made to the manner of electing the chief executive and the Legislative Council require domestic legislation alone or amendment of the Basic Law or its annexes; how amendments to achieve electoral reform should be initiated; and whether reform for direct election of the chief executive could be achieved in 2007. The government also frequently invokes Basic Law language which says any change should consider the "actual situation" and be "gradual and orderly".
The basic principle of legal interpretation is to give priority to the plain meaning of the Basic Law text. The frequent tendency to resort to former mainland Basic Law drafters or other officials for their alleged intent is clearly inappropriate where the text is clear. Even in cases of ambiguity, there are better constitutional traditions of interpretation. An approach little constrained by the text was offered by former drafter Xiao Weiyun at the weekend. This approach may tend to add new gloss to the Basic Law every time officials are unhappy with the text and will surely jeopardise the rule of law.
On the face of it, the legal issues raised can be disposed of quickly. Giving priority to specific language in the text, it seems clear that no Basic Law amendment is required. While there are separate provisions in Article 159 for amendment of the Basic Law, Annexes I and II provide specific provisions on the way "to amend the method for selecting the chief executive" and "to amend the provisions", "with regard to the method for forming the Legislative Council". There is no mention of Basic Law amendment. Even if the government deemed amending the annexes procedurally preferable, it would be bound to follow the procedures specified therein, and not Article 159.
These amendment provisions also answer the initiation question. For the chief executive, they specify "endorsement of a two-thirds majority of all members of the Legislative Council and the consent of the chief executive, and they shall be reported to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for approval". The break in the sentence at the comma signals that something is done locally before reporting for approval. For Legco, the language is the same, except "for the record" replaces "for approval".
On the third question, the government itself has long taken the view that the language in Annex I allowing amendment to "the method for selecting the chief executives for the terms subsequent to the year 2007" includes the election in 2007. Even Basic Law drafters at the time agreed.
On the last two points, it is hard to imagine that the "actual situation" in Hong Kong could be any more favourable to democracy. As to "gradual and orderly", the electoral process in Hong Kong has developed very slowly over 15 years. The Basic Law itself provides a very gradual process for the first 10 years.
If the taskforce is just designed to confirm the above interpretation and get Beijing's understanding, then the discussion should be short and involve no controversy. Official
foot-dragging would surely attract public suspicion. Therefore, because these legal issues involve no problems, analysts may conclude that political concerns are the real reasons for delay.
Beyond the parameters of our local political debate, I have heard three prominent political reasons for Beijing's concern with democratisation in Hong Kong: that democrats in Hong Kong are fiscally irresponsible and Beijing may someday be required to bail out a democratic government; that a democratic Hong Kong may pose a challenge to Beijing, much as the government in Taiwan does now; and that a democratic Hong Kong offers a threatening model for reform on the mainland.
On fiscal responsibility, the current authoritarian government, with little local political capital, is much more disabled than any democratic authority is likely to be. It may feel compelled to use less fiscal restraint to buy support. At the same time, the undemocratic system tends to turn the few elected legislators into a permanent opposition. The opposition is not in a position of political responsibility to the extent it would have to be if it were elected to form the government.
On the second question, there is no evidence that a democratic Hong Kong government would pose a Taiwan-style challenge. There has never been an independence movement in Hong Kong. Democratic forces have shown great restraint. Isolating them has been counterproductive and confrontational. Democrats understand that for a democratic government to frequently challenge Beijing would surely not contribute to its political success.
Finally, the idea of Hong Kong affording a subversive democratic model for China is even less tenable. There are democratic models in Taiwan and all over Asia. A content Hong Kong population under a democratic system serves China's interest best. The recent crises result from the disjuncture between the Basic Law promise and reality.
In the face of these concerns, rather than get bogged down in the above pseudo-technical problems, we may better focus on democratic political design and reform. The government taskforce's main mission might be to present this Hong Kong reality.
Michael Davis is a professor of law and director of the Graduate Programme in Law and Public Affairs at Chinese University.
Basic Law, basic facts
MICHAEL DAVIS
Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's policy address has set Hong Kong on a likely collision course over democracy. Paradoxically, the Hong Kong and central governments, pro-Beijing supporters and the democratic camp all cite the Basic Law as their guide. It clearly allows for democratic development from 2007, leaving the public to wonder what the problems are. Are they legal or political?
The government has set up a taskforce and plans to consult Beijing on several legal issues. These include whether changes made to the manner of electing the chief executive and the Legislative Council require domestic legislation alone or amendment of the Basic Law or its annexes; how amendments to achieve electoral reform should be initiated; and whether reform for direct election of the chief executive could be achieved in 2007. The government also frequently invokes Basic Law language which says any change should consider the "actual situation" and be "gradual and orderly".
The basic principle of legal interpretation is to give priority to the plain meaning of the Basic Law text. The frequent tendency to resort to former mainland Basic Law drafters or other officials for their alleged intent is clearly inappropriate where the text is clear. Even in cases of ambiguity, there are better constitutional traditions of interpretation. An approach little constrained by the text was offered by former drafter Xiao Weiyun at the weekend. This approach may tend to add new gloss to the Basic Law every time officials are unhappy with the text and will surely jeopardise the rule of law.
On the face of it, the legal issues raised can be disposed of quickly. Giving priority to specific language in the text, it seems clear that no Basic Law amendment is required. While there are separate provisions in Article 159 for amendment of the Basic Law, Annexes I and II provide specific provisions on the way "to amend the method for selecting the chief executive" and "to amend the provisions", "with regard to the method for forming the Legislative Council". There is no mention of Basic Law amendment. Even if the government deemed amending the annexes procedurally preferable, it would be bound to follow the procedures specified therein, and not Article 159.
These amendment provisions also answer the initiation question. For the chief executive, they specify "endorsement of a two-thirds majority of all members of the Legislative Council and the consent of the chief executive, and they shall be reported to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for approval". The break in the sentence at the comma signals that something is done locally before reporting for approval. For Legco, the language is the same, except "for the record" replaces "for approval".
On the third question, the government itself has long taken the view that the language in Annex I allowing amendment to "the method for selecting the chief executives for the terms subsequent to the year 2007" includes the election in 2007. Even Basic Law drafters at the time agreed.
On the last two points, it is hard to imagine that the "actual situation" in Hong Kong could be any more favourable to democracy. As to "gradual and orderly", the electoral process in Hong Kong has developed very slowly over 15 years. The Basic Law itself provides a very gradual process for the first 10 years.
If the taskforce is just designed to confirm the above interpretation and get Beijing's understanding, then the discussion should be short and involve no controversy. Official
foot-dragging would surely attract public suspicion. Therefore, because these legal issues involve no problems, analysts may conclude that political concerns are the real reasons for delay.
Beyond the parameters of our local political debate, I have heard three prominent political reasons for Beijing's concern with democratisation in Hong Kong: that democrats in Hong Kong are fiscally irresponsible and Beijing may someday be required to bail out a democratic government; that a democratic Hong Kong may pose a challenge to Beijing, much as the government in Taiwan does now; and that a democratic Hong Kong offers a threatening model for reform on the mainland.
On fiscal responsibility, the current authoritarian government, with little local political capital, is much more disabled than any democratic authority is likely to be. It may feel compelled to use less fiscal restraint to buy support. At the same time, the undemocratic system tends to turn the few elected legislators into a permanent opposition. The opposition is not in a position of political responsibility to the extent it would have to be if it were elected to form the government.
On the second question, there is no evidence that a democratic Hong Kong government would pose a Taiwan-style challenge. There has never been an independence movement in Hong Kong. Democratic forces have shown great restraint. Isolating them has been counterproductive and confrontational. Democrats understand that for a democratic government to frequently challenge Beijing would surely not contribute to its political success.
Finally, the idea of Hong Kong affording a subversive democratic model for China is even less tenable. There are democratic models in Taiwan and all over Asia. A content Hong Kong population under a democratic system serves China's interest best. The recent crises result from the disjuncture between the Basic Law promise and reality.
In the face of these concerns, rather than get bogged down in the above pseudo-technical problems, we may better focus on democratic political design and reform. The government taskforce's main mission might be to present this Hong Kong reality.
Michael Davis is a professor of law and director of the Graduate Programme in Law and Public Affairs at Chinese University.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
China’s economy grows 9.1pc in 2003: official figures
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Beijing
Updated at 12.24pm:
The mainland’s economy grew by 9.1 per cent in 2003 from the previous year, China’s national bureau of statistics announced on Tuesday.
“According to preliminary estimations and evaluation, the GDP of China in 2003 was 11.6694 trillion yuan, up 9.1 percent over the previous year according to comparable prices,” the bureau said in a statement ahead of a press conference.
The growth rate is the highest since 1997.
China’s economy grows 9.1pc in 2003: official figures
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Beijing
Updated at 12.24pm:
The mainland’s economy grew by 9.1 per cent in 2003 from the previous year, China’s national bureau of statistics announced on Tuesday.
“According to preliminary estimations and evaluation, the GDP of China in 2003 was 11.6694 trillion yuan, up 9.1 percent over the previous year according to comparable prices,” the bureau said in a statement ahead of a press conference.
The growth rate is the highest since 1997.
Economy grows 9.9pc in last quarter of 2003
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
ASSOCIATED PRESS in Beijing
Updated at 4.03pm:
China's fast-expanding economy grew a surprising 9.9 per cent in the final quarter of last year, the government said on Tuesday, signaling a quick recovery from the economic fallout of the Sars epidemic and hinting at a favourable outlook for 2004.
Investment and foreign trade helped drive the country's annual gross domestic product growth to 9.1 per cent, according to the official figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
At 11.7 trillion yuan, the full-year GDP growth was the highest since 1997 - a hard-won success in the face of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak, said Li Deshui, the bureau's commissioner.
"When we look at the economic performance of 2003 we are very happy to see ... rapid economic growth, a stable CPI [consumer price index], an improvement in the employment situation, and very good balance of payments," Li said.
Economic growth is the primary concern of China's leadership, which has promised its citizens fast development and increasing living standards as part of the construction of a "xiaokang," or "well-off," society.
The full-year GDP rise exceeded market consensus, and was much higher than the 8.5 per cent predicted by China's State Taxation Administration Commissioner Xie Xuren last week. The reason for the discrepancy wasn't immediately clear.
For 2004, Li projected at least 7 per cent growth, with a lively first quarter backed by continued investment. He also said consumer demand will be stronger, while export growth was likely to slow.
In Shanghai, the country's financial hub, the economy grew by 11.8 per cent last year - its fastest rate since 1998, state media reported on Tuesday.
"Shanghai's economic growth last year beat earlier expectations," Vice Mayor Zhou Yupeng was quoted as saying.
In addition to Sars, Shanghai also had to cope with a summer heat wave that strained the electrical grid and forced cutbacks in work hours.
The emergence of Sars last spring kept people and investors away from China for months, causing widespread worry of a long-term economic impact.
Its higher-than-expected fourth quarter and full-year GDP growth may raise further concerns that China's economy may be overheating.
But, Li said, while some "select regions and select sectors" may be showing signs of overheating, the overall picture is sound.
ASSOCIATED PRESS in Beijing
Updated at 4.03pm:
China's fast-expanding economy grew a surprising 9.9 per cent in the final quarter of last year, the government said on Tuesday, signaling a quick recovery from the economic fallout of the Sars epidemic and hinting at a favourable outlook for 2004.
Investment and foreign trade helped drive the country's annual gross domestic product growth to 9.1 per cent, according to the official figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
At 11.7 trillion yuan, the full-year GDP growth was the highest since 1997 - a hard-won success in the face of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak, said Li Deshui, the bureau's commissioner.
"When we look at the economic performance of 2003 we are very happy to see ... rapid economic growth, a stable CPI [consumer price index], an improvement in the employment situation, and very good balance of payments," Li said.
Economic growth is the primary concern of China's leadership, which has promised its citizens fast development and increasing living standards as part of the construction of a "xiaokang," or "well-off," society.
The full-year GDP rise exceeded market consensus, and was much higher than the 8.5 per cent predicted by China's State Taxation Administration Commissioner Xie Xuren last week. The reason for the discrepancy wasn't immediately clear.
For 2004, Li projected at least 7 per cent growth, with a lively first quarter backed by continued investment. He also said consumer demand will be stronger, while export growth was likely to slow.
In Shanghai, the country's financial hub, the economy grew by 11.8 per cent last year - its fastest rate since 1998, state media reported on Tuesday.
"Shanghai's economic growth last year beat earlier expectations," Vice Mayor Zhou Yupeng was quoted as saying.
In addition to Sars, Shanghai also had to cope with a summer heat wave that strained the electrical grid and forced cutbacks in work hours.
The emergence of Sars last spring kept people and investors away from China for months, causing widespread worry of a long-term economic impact.
Its higher-than-expected fourth quarter and full-year GDP growth may raise further concerns that China's economy may be overheating.
But, Li said, while some "select regions and select sectors" may be showing signs of overheating, the overall picture is sound.
Disneyland plans grand Victorian-era dim sum eatery
SCMP - Tuesday, January 20, 2004
CARRIE CHAN
Hong Kong Disneyland will try to span more than 2,000 years of culinary history by matching traditional Chinese food with Victorian-era elements in its first dim sum eatery.
Victorian-style gables, a pyramid-shaped roof and broad porch will be found on the exterior of the dim sum eatery, which will also showcase Chinese lanterns, an aquarium and furniture with an eastern touch.
The 550-square-metre restaurant on the park's Main Street will offer 310 seats and will be the most expensive eatery among eight food outlets in the theme park, which will open late next year.
The restaurant will be run by Maxim's Caterers. The group will also operate the Market House bakery, offering western and local pastries, while other eateries serving mostly Asian cuisine will be run by Disneyland.
Michael Wu Wai-kuo, managing director of Maxim's Caterers, said the menu would feature traditional dim sum from various provinces, roast meats and a la carte dishes.
But he said the dim sum could look different from that offered in other Maxim's restaurants.
"There could be Mickey Mouse shrimp dumplings. The attire of waiters and waitresses will carry a special theme which cannot be disclosed now," he said. "The prices will be affordable because we are targeting mainland tourists."
Mr Wu said the restaurant's 160 workers would be proficient in Cantonese, Putonghua and English.
He refused to reveal the terms of the contract signed with Disneyland or the funds invested. "I can only tell you that about $10 million is required to set up a Chinese restaurant," Mr Wu said.
Hong Kong Disneyland's group managing director, Don Robinson, said the company expected the number of visitors to hit 5.6 million a year.
"We are optimistic [about the figure] when we see the people coming across the border," he said.
CARRIE CHAN
Hong Kong Disneyland will try to span more than 2,000 years of culinary history by matching traditional Chinese food with Victorian-era elements in its first dim sum eatery.
Victorian-style gables, a pyramid-shaped roof and broad porch will be found on the exterior of the dim sum eatery, which will also showcase Chinese lanterns, an aquarium and furniture with an eastern touch.
The 550-square-metre restaurant on the park's Main Street will offer 310 seats and will be the most expensive eatery among eight food outlets in the theme park, which will open late next year.
The restaurant will be run by Maxim's Caterers. The group will also operate the Market House bakery, offering western and local pastries, while other eateries serving mostly Asian cuisine will be run by Disneyland.
Michael Wu Wai-kuo, managing director of Maxim's Caterers, said the menu would feature traditional dim sum from various provinces, roast meats and a la carte dishes.
But he said the dim sum could look different from that offered in other Maxim's restaurants.
"There could be Mickey Mouse shrimp dumplings. The attire of waiters and waitresses will carry a special theme which cannot be disclosed now," he said. "The prices will be affordable because we are targeting mainland tourists."
Mr Wu said the restaurant's 160 workers would be proficient in Cantonese, Putonghua and English.
He refused to reveal the terms of the contract signed with Disneyland or the funds invested. "I can only tell you that about $10 million is required to set up a Chinese restaurant," Mr Wu said.
Hong Kong Disneyland's group managing director, Don Robinson, said the company expected the number of visitors to hit 5.6 million a year.
"We are optimistic [about the figure] when we see the people coming across the border," he said.
Lawyers put universal suffrage case
SCMP - Tuesday, January 20, 2004
AMBROSE LEUNG
A group of leading lawyers has urged the government taskforce on constitutional reform not to get bogged down in the technicalities of the Basic Law and to express the groundswell of support for universal suffrage.
The Article 45 Concern Group said the three-member taskforce should clearly reflect the public's strong desire for the introduction of universal suffrage in 2007 when it meets central government officials in Beijing.
The comments came after members of the group yesterday met the head of the taskforce, Chief Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, to express their views on constitutional reform.
Alan Leong Kar-kit, a member of the group, referred to two key requirements of Article 45 of the Basic Law which are required for changes in the method of electing the chief executive.
They were that change should be "gradual and orderly" and interpreted in light of Hong Kong's "actual situation". Hong Kong's actual situation showed strong public demand for universal suffrage in 2007, Mr Leong said.
He also said three elections held since the handover and an increase in the number of directly-elected seats in the Legislative Council showed there had been a "gradual and orderly" movement towards political reform.
"Why does it [Article 45] say `actual situation'?" Mr Leong said.
"It is because we have to assess what the actual situation ... is like in Hong Kong and then we use `gradual and orderly' progress to complement the actual situation. The process should be used to serve the actual need [for reform]."
Mr Leong said the taskforce, which was expected to meet central government officials soon, should channel the views of the public for universal suffrage in 2007.
Fellow lawyer and group member Gladys Li said: "The question is ... should there be a change, if so, what sort of change should there be?
"As far as we are concerned, the main task of the taskforce should be to reflect the views of people in Hong Kong, in that they want universal suffrage and they want it now."
Margaret Ng Ngoi-yee, the legal sector's representative in Legco, said the views of Basic Law drafter Xiao Weiyun, who suggested that Hong Kong may not have universal suffrage until 2047, should not be taken as the official interpretation of the Basic Law. Professor Xiao's comments differed to those of another Basic Law drafter, the late Ji Pengfei, who said the mini-constitution allowed for universal suffrage after 2007.
Ms Ng also said Beijing should reveal its bottom line on whether universal suffrage would be allowed by 2007.
"Beijing cannot ignore public demand ... It should make clear under what conditions it would consider [public] views as majority views so we can carry out ... a referendum or opinion survey."
AMBROSE LEUNG
A group of leading lawyers has urged the government taskforce on constitutional reform not to get bogged down in the technicalities of the Basic Law and to express the groundswell of support for universal suffrage.
The Article 45 Concern Group said the three-member taskforce should clearly reflect the public's strong desire for the introduction of universal suffrage in 2007 when it meets central government officials in Beijing.
The comments came after members of the group yesterday met the head of the taskforce, Chief Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, to express their views on constitutional reform.
Alan Leong Kar-kit, a member of the group, referred to two key requirements of Article 45 of the Basic Law which are required for changes in the method of electing the chief executive.
They were that change should be "gradual and orderly" and interpreted in light of Hong Kong's "actual situation". Hong Kong's actual situation showed strong public demand for universal suffrage in 2007, Mr Leong said.
He also said three elections held since the handover and an increase in the number of directly-elected seats in the Legislative Council showed there had been a "gradual and orderly" movement towards political reform.
"Why does it [Article 45] say `actual situation'?" Mr Leong said.
"It is because we have to assess what the actual situation ... is like in Hong Kong and then we use `gradual and orderly' progress to complement the actual situation. The process should be used to serve the actual need [for reform]."
Mr Leong said the taskforce, which was expected to meet central government officials soon, should channel the views of the public for universal suffrage in 2007.
Fellow lawyer and group member Gladys Li said: "The question is ... should there be a change, if so, what sort of change should there be?
"As far as we are concerned, the main task of the taskforce should be to reflect the views of people in Hong Kong, in that they want universal suffrage and they want it now."
Margaret Ng Ngoi-yee, the legal sector's representative in Legco, said the views of Basic Law drafter Xiao Weiyun, who suggested that Hong Kong may not have universal suffrage until 2047, should not be taken as the official interpretation of the Basic Law. Professor Xiao's comments differed to those of another Basic Law drafter, the late Ji Pengfei, who said the mini-constitution allowed for universal suffrage after 2007.
Ms Ng also said Beijing should reveal its bottom line on whether universal suffrage would be allowed by 2007.
"Beijing cannot ignore public demand ... It should make clear under what conditions it would consider [public] views as majority views so we can carry out ... a referendum or opinion survey."
Jurists leave no doubt: 2007 is out
SCMP - Tuesday, January 20, 2004
GARY CHEUNG
After a week of dominating Hong Kong headlines, two leading mainland legal experts on the Basic Law return to Beijing today having delivered a clear message: go slow on constitutional change.
They told the city in no uncertain terms it cannot elect the chief executive by universal suffrage by 2007. Think about 2030 or 2040 instead, they said.
While former Basic Law drafter Xiao Weiyun and jurist Xia Yong say they do not represent the central government, their view that Hong Kong can only contemplate introducing universal suffrage after 2030 is believed to reflect official thinking.
Analysts say their visit has been arranged to informally articulate the central government's position ahead of a visit to Beijing by a Hong Kong government taskforce on political reform, and to dampen aspirations for more rapid democratisation.
The taskforce, headed by Chief Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, will consult government departments on the meaning of clauses in the Basic Law covering the evolution of the city's political system.
The mainland experts reiterated Beijing had a decisive say in Hong Kong's political development. At a public forum yesterday, Professor Xiao said the Basic Law drafters never considered election of the chief executive by universal suffrage in 2007.
Referring to Article 45 of the Basic Law, which says the chief executive will ultimately be elected by universal suffrage, Professor Xiao said it meant this would be achieved in the final stage of the 50-year lifespan of "one country, two systems". But, he said, "it did not necessarily mean that it would not be achieved until the 2030s or 2040s, or [that] it was not allowed in the 2020s".
The Basic Law says the methods for electing the chief executive and Legislative Council should evolve in light of the "actual situation" in Hong Kong, and in accordance with the principle of "gradual and orderly progress".
But Martin Lee Chu-ming, who was a member of the Basic Law drafting committee and formerly chaired the Democratic Party, said: "The final draft of the Basic Law [went beyond the second draft in allowing] an earlier review of the electoral method in 2007, after many Hong Kong drafters called for a faster pace of democracy in the wake of the Tiananmen massacre in 1989. I don't see the logic that the drafters wanted universal suffrage in the 2030s or 2040s."
He also said the second draft of the Basic Law stated that during the term of the third chief executive (2007 to 2012), Legco should formulate a means of deciding, by referendum, whether subsequent leaders should be chosen by general election.
GARY CHEUNG
After a week of dominating Hong Kong headlines, two leading mainland legal experts on the Basic Law return to Beijing today having delivered a clear message: go slow on constitutional change.
They told the city in no uncertain terms it cannot elect the chief executive by universal suffrage by 2007. Think about 2030 or 2040 instead, they said.
While former Basic Law drafter Xiao Weiyun and jurist Xia Yong say they do not represent the central government, their view that Hong Kong can only contemplate introducing universal suffrage after 2030 is believed to reflect official thinking.
Analysts say their visit has been arranged to informally articulate the central government's position ahead of a visit to Beijing by a Hong Kong government taskforce on political reform, and to dampen aspirations for more rapid democratisation.
The taskforce, headed by Chief Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, will consult government departments on the meaning of clauses in the Basic Law covering the evolution of the city's political system.
The mainland experts reiterated Beijing had a decisive say in Hong Kong's political development. At a public forum yesterday, Professor Xiao said the Basic Law drafters never considered election of the chief executive by universal suffrage in 2007.
Referring to Article 45 of the Basic Law, which says the chief executive will ultimately be elected by universal suffrage, Professor Xiao said it meant this would be achieved in the final stage of the 50-year lifespan of "one country, two systems". But, he said, "it did not necessarily mean that it would not be achieved until the 2030s or 2040s, or [that] it was not allowed in the 2020s".
The Basic Law says the methods for electing the chief executive and Legislative Council should evolve in light of the "actual situation" in Hong Kong, and in accordance with the principle of "gradual and orderly progress".
But Martin Lee Chu-ming, who was a member of the Basic Law drafting committee and formerly chaired the Democratic Party, said: "The final draft of the Basic Law [went beyond the second draft in allowing] an earlier review of the electoral method in 2007, after many Hong Kong drafters called for a faster pace of democracy in the wake of the Tiananmen massacre in 1989. I don't see the logic that the drafters wanted universal suffrage in the 2030s or 2040s."
He also said the second draft of the Basic Law stated that during the term of the third chief executive (2007 to 2012), Legco should formulate a means of deciding, by referendum, whether subsequent leaders should be chosen by general election.
Ministry lifts lid on thousands of files
SCMP - Tuesday, January 20, 2004
RAY CHEUNG
The Foreign Ministry is opening to the public thousands of declassified files from the early years of the People's Republic of China, including manuscripts of late premier Zhou Enlai.
The move, the first by a Chinese ministry, has been made possible by the equivalent of Britain's 30-year rule on disclosure of government files. It was applauded yesterday by a mainland scholar as another move towards transparency by the central government.
Xinhua quoted ministry archivist Zhang Sulin as saying all Chinese individuals, as well as foreigners could view 10,000 declassified files from the years 1949 to 1955. However, a staff member at the Foreign Ministry's archive department said the public collection included only 4,500 documents.
The documents include directives and speeches drafted by Zhou, who served as foreign minister from 1949 to 1958, and diplomatic despatches on the establishment of official ties between China and its early partners such as the former Soviet Union.
Others show how China fought to establish its seats in the two important international institutions at the time: the Geneva Conference, a grouping of major powers such as the United States and Britain to discuss the issue of Korea, and the Bandung Conference handling issues of colonialism and national independence in East Asia.
Xinhua said the release of the files was in accordance with the Archives Law and followed the recent promulgation of a regulation by the Foreign Ministry. Under the law, documents that are over 30 years old and are no longer subject to classification or restricted access can be made available to the public.
"Archives should serve the state interests and the public," Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing was quoted as saying.
The declassification is seen as another move by Mr Li to boost transparency. The veteran diplomat has taken several steps to boost openness, including appearing in an internet chat room to answer questions about the mainland's position on foreign affairs.
To view the documents, interested parties are required to apply 20 working days in advance, and show a letter of introduction from their employers or research unit. Foreigners can apply through their embassies.
A Foreign Ministry employee said the archive had been open since last Friday and the office had already received six applications.
The documents are in digital form and viewers are only allowed to take handwritten notes. File reproduction will be permitted on a case by case basis.
The ministry employee said the files did not include any related to Western Europe or the United States. She declined to say if the files covered military history such as the 1950-1953 Korean war.
Despite the limitations, Zhang Baijia, an historian at the Communist Party Central Committee's History Research Centre in Beijing, said the move was a "major step forward . . . people now have the right to information".
He said the declassification should allow historians to engage in more accurate research, instead of relying on educated guesses.
He expects the Foreign Ministry to release more files in the future.
RAY CHEUNG
The Foreign Ministry is opening to the public thousands of declassified files from the early years of the People's Republic of China, including manuscripts of late premier Zhou Enlai.
The move, the first by a Chinese ministry, has been made possible by the equivalent of Britain's 30-year rule on disclosure of government files. It was applauded yesterday by a mainland scholar as another move towards transparency by the central government.
Xinhua quoted ministry archivist Zhang Sulin as saying all Chinese individuals, as well as foreigners could view 10,000 declassified files from the years 1949 to 1955. However, a staff member at the Foreign Ministry's archive department said the public collection included only 4,500 documents.
The documents include directives and speeches drafted by Zhou, who served as foreign minister from 1949 to 1958, and diplomatic despatches on the establishment of official ties between China and its early partners such as the former Soviet Union.
Others show how China fought to establish its seats in the two important international institutions at the time: the Geneva Conference, a grouping of major powers such as the United States and Britain to discuss the issue of Korea, and the Bandung Conference handling issues of colonialism and national independence in East Asia.
Xinhua said the release of the files was in accordance with the Archives Law and followed the recent promulgation of a regulation by the Foreign Ministry. Under the law, documents that are over 30 years old and are no longer subject to classification or restricted access can be made available to the public.
"Archives should serve the state interests and the public," Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing was quoted as saying.
The declassification is seen as another move by Mr Li to boost transparency. The veteran diplomat has taken several steps to boost openness, including appearing in an internet chat room to answer questions about the mainland's position on foreign affairs.
To view the documents, interested parties are required to apply 20 working days in advance, and show a letter of introduction from their employers or research unit. Foreigners can apply through their embassies.
A Foreign Ministry employee said the archive had been open since last Friday and the office had already received six applications.
The documents are in digital form and viewers are only allowed to take handwritten notes. File reproduction will be permitted on a case by case basis.
The ministry employee said the files did not include any related to Western Europe or the United States. She declined to say if the files covered military history such as the 1950-1953 Korean war.
Despite the limitations, Zhang Baijia, an historian at the Communist Party Central Committee's History Research Centre in Beijing, said the move was a "major step forward . . . people now have the right to information".
He said the declassification should allow historians to engage in more accurate research, instead of relying on educated guesses.
He expects the Foreign Ministry to release more files in the future.
US economy's fate may rest with Asia
SCMP - Friday, January 9, 2004
PETER KAMMERER, Foreign Editor
The fate of the US economy could rest in Asia's hands, regional economists suggested yesterday.
While Asian central banks buy US dollars to stop linked currencies from rising in value, US debt repayments will be adequately serviced, they said. But problems could arise if China, Japan and other nations with pegged economies lose confidence in the US.
Some analysts warn that this may be starting to happen as the US dollar weakens against the world's major currencies.
Shane Oliver, the chief economist and head of investment strategy at Australian-based AMP Capital Investors, believes US President George W. Bush's administration caused the budget deficit blowout to stimulate economic growth.
Dr Oliver expects the deficit to be brought under control in the longer term, although Asian economies will also have to play a part. "If Asian countries fail to provide support, the US will continue to require large amounts of global capital to finance its borrowings," Dr Oliver said from Sydney.
"To date, they've been getting a lot of that, with Asian economies reluctant to stop exchange rates from rising."
The biggest threat to the US is if Asian central banks stop paying US debt through buying government bonds. This could happen if the US dollar continued to fall significantly, he warned.
"Asian investors are incurring losses on their US investments and there's always a risk that at some point, they will tire of doing that," Dr Oliver said.
He said Asian central banks had been buying American dollars to prevent their own currencies from rising, but if Asia lost confidence in the United States, it could result in a downward spiral of the US dollar, which could prompt a currency crisis.
Deutsche Bank's chief economist for Asia, Michael Spencer, agreed. A sharp rise in US interest rates or a slowing of its economy would also affect Asia, he said.
Mr Spencer said: "If investor confidence in the US suffers and the economy starts slowing down - particularly business investment - that then takes the legs out of our exports. The basis for growth in Asia then disappears. We would then both suffer high interest rates and slower growth."
Despite this, Mr Spencer believes the US will be able to bring its deficit under control.
"Given how much of the deficit of the past year to 18 months has reflected the need for temporary stimulus of the economy and spending on the wars on Iraq and terrorism, they will be able to bring it down," he said.
Deutsche Bank has forecast the deficit will be 4.2 per cent of gross national product next year, and although Mr Spencer believes this figure could be overly optimistic, he thinks the Bush administration is committed to taking action.
But other senior economists doubted this would happen until after November's presidential election.
PETER KAMMERER, Foreign Editor
The fate of the US economy could rest in Asia's hands, regional economists suggested yesterday.
While Asian central banks buy US dollars to stop linked currencies from rising in value, US debt repayments will be adequately serviced, they said. But problems could arise if China, Japan and other nations with pegged economies lose confidence in the US.
Some analysts warn that this may be starting to happen as the US dollar weakens against the world's major currencies.
Shane Oliver, the chief economist and head of investment strategy at Australian-based AMP Capital Investors, believes US President George W. Bush's administration caused the budget deficit blowout to stimulate economic growth.
Dr Oliver expects the deficit to be brought under control in the longer term, although Asian economies will also have to play a part. "If Asian countries fail to provide support, the US will continue to require large amounts of global capital to finance its borrowings," Dr Oliver said from Sydney.
"To date, they've been getting a lot of that, with Asian economies reluctant to stop exchange rates from rising."
The biggest threat to the US is if Asian central banks stop paying US debt through buying government bonds. This could happen if the US dollar continued to fall significantly, he warned.
"Asian investors are incurring losses on their US investments and there's always a risk that at some point, they will tire of doing that," Dr Oliver said.
He said Asian central banks had been buying American dollars to prevent their own currencies from rising, but if Asia lost confidence in the United States, it could result in a downward spiral of the US dollar, which could prompt a currency crisis.
Deutsche Bank's chief economist for Asia, Michael Spencer, agreed. A sharp rise in US interest rates or a slowing of its economy would also affect Asia, he said.
Mr Spencer said: "If investor confidence in the US suffers and the economy starts slowing down - particularly business investment - that then takes the legs out of our exports. The basis for growth in Asia then disappears. We would then both suffer high interest rates and slower growth."
Despite this, Mr Spencer believes the US will be able to bring its deficit under control.
"Given how much of the deficit of the past year to 18 months has reflected the need for temporary stimulus of the economy and spending on the wars on Iraq and terrorism, they will be able to bring it down," he said.
Deutsche Bank has forecast the deficit will be 4.2 per cent of gross national product next year, and although Mr Spencer believes this figure could be overly optimistic, he thinks the Bush administration is committed to taking action.
But other senior economists doubted this would happen until after November's presidential election.
Five Israelis refusing to serve in army to protest occupation go to prison
SCMP - Thursday, January 8, 2004
ASSOCIATED PRESS in Karmel Prison
Updated at 5.48pm:
Five youths went off to face cold winter nights in military prison tents, the price for taking a stand that appeals to a small but growing number of Israelis - army service in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is wrong.
The five began one-year prison terms on Thursday (HK time) after courts refused to recognise them as conscientious objectors. They said they could not serve in the army because of the military's abuse of Palestinians.
"I know already what prison is like," said one of the five, 20-year-old Noam Bahat, frowning slightly. "I'm mostly afraid of wasting time, not being able to study and to struggle to stop the occupation."
During three years of bloody violence that has seen the Israeli military retake control of most of the Palestinian areas, set up dozens of roadblocks, carry out hundreds of raids and kill more than 2,500 Palestinians, only six young Israeli men have refused outright to join the army, citing the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza as the reason.
However, uncounted others have evaded army service for other reasons - some of them clearly fictitious - with the Palestinian conflict lurking prominently in the background.
Also, several hundred reservists have gone to prison for refusing to serve in the Palestinian areas, though they have stated that service inside Israel or on its borders would be acceptable to them. Uncounted others have worked out quiet arrangements with their commanders to be posted inside Israel.
The most visible reservists refusing to serve in the West Bank and Gaza are small groups of air force pilots and soldiers in the army's top commando unit - considered the cream of the Israeli military.
Six wars in the country's 56 years have instilled a defensive kind of patriotism among most of Israel's nearly 7 million citizens. Most readily serve in the army - three years for men and 21 months for women - starting at age 18. Many men serve in the reserves until age 40.
The new phenomenon of refusing to serve in the Palestinian areas - or refusing to serve at all - reflects a split among Israelis about what to do about the Palestinian issue. Polls consistently show that more than half the people would be willing to give up much or all of the West Bank and Gaza for peace, but many Israelis also believe that peace is impossible because of Palestinian attitudes. Some militant groups openly declare their desire to destroy Israel.
The result has been growing unease with the harsh Israeli military activities in areas many Israelis believe will one day be abandoned.
The Israeli government and military explain the operations by saying they are necessary to stop terrorism. During the three-year conflict, 905 people have been killed on the Israeli side, half by Palestinian suicide bombers.
Bahat's mother, Amira, worried that her son would suffer from the cold. The military refused to let him take his down blanket to prison.
Since the day he was supposed to be drafted in December 2002, he has served about a year in jail and been confined to an army base, cleaning and cooking while the military court debated the case.
The court ruled that the five are not conscientious objectors; rather, political demonstrators trying to change Israeli policy by undemocratic methods.
Bahat prepared on Wednesday to leave home, stuffing a backpack with books, including a recent unofficial peace agreement reached between former Israeli and Palestinian Cabinet ministers, the so-called Geneva Accord.
Serving a prison term "is not the highest price to pay" for Israel's military policies, Bahat said from his home in Kfar Saba, an upscale Tel Aviv suburb.
"Every day soldiers and Palestinians are being killed ... and the only way to stop it is to stop the occupation," he said.
The bearded, freckled young man said he expected the government to negotiate with the Palestinians and not use the army as a tool for its hawkish policies. He hopes to show the Palestinians that some Israelis care for their plight and to persuade other Israelis to join his cause.
An older brother serves in a combat unit. Their father, Udi Bahat, said they had both made the right choices, each finding his own best way to contribute to society.
Families and supporters hugged and kissed the men in the prison parking lot before watching them head into the confines of the concrete walls.
"Let's go to jail!" joked one of the young men at the gate, as wind whipped a blue and white Israeli flag above their heads.
ASSOCIATED PRESS in Karmel Prison
Updated at 5.48pm:
Five youths went off to face cold winter nights in military prison tents, the price for taking a stand that appeals to a small but growing number of Israelis - army service in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is wrong.
The five began one-year prison terms on Thursday (HK time) after courts refused to recognise them as conscientious objectors. They said they could not serve in the army because of the military's abuse of Palestinians.
"I know already what prison is like," said one of the five, 20-year-old Noam Bahat, frowning slightly. "I'm mostly afraid of wasting time, not being able to study and to struggle to stop the occupation."
During three years of bloody violence that has seen the Israeli military retake control of most of the Palestinian areas, set up dozens of roadblocks, carry out hundreds of raids and kill more than 2,500 Palestinians, only six young Israeli men have refused outright to join the army, citing the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza as the reason.
However, uncounted others have evaded army service for other reasons - some of them clearly fictitious - with the Palestinian conflict lurking prominently in the background.
Also, several hundred reservists have gone to prison for refusing to serve in the Palestinian areas, though they have stated that service inside Israel or on its borders would be acceptable to them. Uncounted others have worked out quiet arrangements with their commanders to be posted inside Israel.
The most visible reservists refusing to serve in the West Bank and Gaza are small groups of air force pilots and soldiers in the army's top commando unit - considered the cream of the Israeli military.
Six wars in the country's 56 years have instilled a defensive kind of patriotism among most of Israel's nearly 7 million citizens. Most readily serve in the army - three years for men and 21 months for women - starting at age 18. Many men serve in the reserves until age 40.
The new phenomenon of refusing to serve in the Palestinian areas - or refusing to serve at all - reflects a split among Israelis about what to do about the Palestinian issue. Polls consistently show that more than half the people would be willing to give up much or all of the West Bank and Gaza for peace, but many Israelis also believe that peace is impossible because of Palestinian attitudes. Some militant groups openly declare their desire to destroy Israel.
The result has been growing unease with the harsh Israeli military activities in areas many Israelis believe will one day be abandoned.
The Israeli government and military explain the operations by saying they are necessary to stop terrorism. During the three-year conflict, 905 people have been killed on the Israeli side, half by Palestinian suicide bombers.
Bahat's mother, Amira, worried that her son would suffer from the cold. The military refused to let him take his down blanket to prison.
Since the day he was supposed to be drafted in December 2002, he has served about a year in jail and been confined to an army base, cleaning and cooking while the military court debated the case.
The court ruled that the five are not conscientious objectors; rather, political demonstrators trying to change Israeli policy by undemocratic methods.
Bahat prepared on Wednesday to leave home, stuffing a backpack with books, including a recent unofficial peace agreement reached between former Israeli and Palestinian Cabinet ministers, the so-called Geneva Accord.
Serving a prison term "is not the highest price to pay" for Israel's military policies, Bahat said from his home in Kfar Saba, an upscale Tel Aviv suburb.
"Every day soldiers and Palestinians are being killed ... and the only way to stop it is to stop the occupation," he said.
The bearded, freckled young man said he expected the government to negotiate with the Palestinians and not use the army as a tool for its hawkish policies. He hopes to show the Palestinians that some Israelis care for their plight and to persuade other Israelis to join his cause.
An older brother serves in a combat unit. Their father, Udi Bahat, said they had both made the right choices, each finding his own best way to contribute to society.
Families and supporters hugged and kissed the men in the prison parking lot before watching them head into the confines of the concrete walls.
"Let's go to jail!" joked one of the young men at the gate, as wind whipped a blue and white Israeli flag above their heads.
Finally, the Malaysian PM names a deputy
SCMP - Thursday, January 8, 2004
BARADAN KUPPUSAMY in Kuala Lumpur
Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi yesterday appointed Defence Minister Najib Tun Razak as his deputy, ending months of speculation.
The choice of Mr Najib - an urbane, British-educated economics graduate - ended speculation that Mr Abdullah was unable or unwilling to name a deputy for fear of offending party leaders.
The appointment of Mr Najib, 50, a protég?of former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, was followed by a minor cabinet reshuffle that saw second finance minister Jamaluddin Jarjis, another Mahathir loyalist, replaced by Nor Mohamed Yakcop.
Mr Mohamed, a former central bank governor, was the architect of Dr Mahathir's capital-control policies during the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the move to peg the ringgit at 3.8 to the US dollar. Except for the peg, other capital control policies have been abolished.
Mr Abdullah retains the powerful finance and home ministries for himself. Mr Jamaluddin was made minister for Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs.
Mr Najib's appointment was welcomed both by Malaysia's sizeable non-Muslim population and foreign investors, who see his secularism as a counterweight to Mr Abdullah's Islamic credentials.
Mr Najib is the son of Malaysia's second prime minister, Abdul Razak. He entered politics and was elected an MP at age 23 upon the sudden death of his revered father in 1976.
Dr Mahathir, who had a huge political debt to his father, acted as Mr Najib's patron and there was little in the way of his progress through the ranks of government and the dominant Umno party. Mr Najib was a minister at the age of 32.
Analysts welcomed Mr Najib's appointment and the cabinet reshuffle.
"The key thing is Najib's appointment," Michael Lai, of HLG Asset Management, said. "If Abdullah hadn't done it, there may have been a political tussle. It's positive for the market."
The stock market rallied on the news of the appointment, rising to a two-month high. The benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index climbed 2.4 per cent to 805.76.
But opposition leaders were less charitable, describing Mr Najib only as a "moderate Muslim" leader who was completely overshadowed by Dr Mahathir.
Nonetheless, analysts said Mr Najib's appointment and the ministerial reshuffle would ensure continuity in economic policy and help Umno, still the dominant party in a 13-party coalition government.
With the question of Mr Abdullah's deputy finally settled, analysts expect a general election to be called by the second quarter as the prime minister seeks a fresh mandate to strengthen his administration.
His only opponent is the resurgent Islamic PAS, which is exploiting Islam to mobilise rural Malays against the ruling coalition. Analysts say public support for Mr Abdullah is soaring on the back of his uncompromising stand against corruption and abuse of power. His ongoing revamp of the police force is widely supported.
Mr Abdullah leaves today on a tour of Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore, leaving Mr Najib as acting prime minister.
Additional reporting by Bloomberg.
BARADAN KUPPUSAMY in Kuala Lumpur
Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi yesterday appointed Defence Minister Najib Tun Razak as his deputy, ending months of speculation.
The choice of Mr Najib - an urbane, British-educated economics graduate - ended speculation that Mr Abdullah was unable or unwilling to name a deputy for fear of offending party leaders.
The appointment of Mr Najib, 50, a protég?of former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, was followed by a minor cabinet reshuffle that saw second finance minister Jamaluddin Jarjis, another Mahathir loyalist, replaced by Nor Mohamed Yakcop.
Mr Mohamed, a former central bank governor, was the architect of Dr Mahathir's capital-control policies during the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the move to peg the ringgit at 3.8 to the US dollar. Except for the peg, other capital control policies have been abolished.
Mr Abdullah retains the powerful finance and home ministries for himself. Mr Jamaluddin was made minister for Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs.
Mr Najib's appointment was welcomed both by Malaysia's sizeable non-Muslim population and foreign investors, who see his secularism as a counterweight to Mr Abdullah's Islamic credentials.
Mr Najib is the son of Malaysia's second prime minister, Abdul Razak. He entered politics and was elected an MP at age 23 upon the sudden death of his revered father in 1976.
Dr Mahathir, who had a huge political debt to his father, acted as Mr Najib's patron and there was little in the way of his progress through the ranks of government and the dominant Umno party. Mr Najib was a minister at the age of 32.
Analysts welcomed Mr Najib's appointment and the cabinet reshuffle.
"The key thing is Najib's appointment," Michael Lai, of HLG Asset Management, said. "If Abdullah hadn't done it, there may have been a political tussle. It's positive for the market."
The stock market rallied on the news of the appointment, rising to a two-month high. The benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index climbed 2.4 per cent to 805.76.
But opposition leaders were less charitable, describing Mr Najib only as a "moderate Muslim" leader who was completely overshadowed by Dr Mahathir.
Nonetheless, analysts said Mr Najib's appointment and the ministerial reshuffle would ensure continuity in economic policy and help Umno, still the dominant party in a 13-party coalition government.
With the question of Mr Abdullah's deputy finally settled, analysts expect a general election to be called by the second quarter as the prime minister seeks a fresh mandate to strengthen his administration.
His only opponent is the resurgent Islamic PAS, which is exploiting Islam to mobilise rural Malays against the ruling coalition. Analysts say public support for Mr Abdullah is soaring on the back of his uncompromising stand against corruption and abuse of power. His ongoing revamp of the police force is widely supported.
Mr Abdullah leaves today on a tour of Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore, leaving Mr Najib as acting prime minister.
Additional reporting by Bloomberg.
South Asian nations agree on fast track to free trade and development
SCMP - Wednesday, January 7, 2004
BLOOMBERG in Islamabad
Leaders of India, Pakistan and five other South Asian nations have signed a draft agreement to slash trade barriers, starting in January 2006, to boost economic growth in a region that is home to half the world's poor.
South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation countries (Saarc), which also include Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and the Maldives, have agreed to all but eliminate tariffs by 2016. The plan would bring to fruition the idea of a South Asian Free Trade Area that was envisaged in 1985, when the group was formed.
South Asia is moving to emulate the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the European Union. Trade between Asean nations makes up 63 per cent of Southeast Asia's trade and intra-EU trade accounts for two-thirds of the trade of the 15 EU countries. Trade among South Asian countries, 70 per cent dominated by India, is barely 5 per cent of the region's total.
"We have come to accept that if we do not close ranks our people will sink deeper into poverty and our countries will continue to suffer the consequences of discord and weakness in the fiercely competitive world," Bhutan's Prime Minister, Jigme Thinley, said.
The signing ceremony came at the end of the 12th Saarc summit in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad. The country's Prime Minister, Zafarullah Khan Jamali, described the summit as a "turning point" that could put the region on "the fast track to growth and development".
"In an increasingly interdependent world, South Asian nations have no option but to take up the challenges of globalisation by bringing into place the economic complementarities that exist among and between regions," Mr Jamali said.
Under the accord, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the region's largest economies, have until the end of 2012 to reduce tariffs to between zero and 5 per cent. Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and the Maldives have until 2016. Each country will be able to maintain a "sensitive list" of products on which tariffs will not be reduced.
Tariffs are high across South Asian borders - Pakistan and Bangladesh have import tariffs as high as 25 per cent. The tariffs may drop if India, the biggest economy in the region, meets a commitment to cut tariffs from 25 per cent to Asean levels. Asean members charge each other 5 per cent or less for 96 per cent of the goods they trade.
South Asia's quest for economic co-operation has been frustrated by the India-Pakistan conflict. The nuclear-armed neighbours came to the brink of war in 2002 after India accused Pakistan of backing a terrorist attack on its parliament in December 2001. Pakistan denied involvement.
While India and Pakistan account for 80 per cent of the US$650 billion South Asian economy, they have been unable to bridge political differences until now.
A trade agreement might help double trade between India and Pakistan to more than US$3 billion a year, the India-Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry's Ilyas Ahmed Bilour said.
At US$1.5 billion, the value of goods smuggled between the two countries is six times the value of official trade. Trade among the seven countries, home to more than 1.5 billion people, is an annual US$4 billion and could rise to $14 billion.
BLOOMBERG in Islamabad
Leaders of India, Pakistan and five other South Asian nations have signed a draft agreement to slash trade barriers, starting in January 2006, to boost economic growth in a region that is home to half the world's poor.
South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation countries (Saarc), which also include Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and the Maldives, have agreed to all but eliminate tariffs by 2016. The plan would bring to fruition the idea of a South Asian Free Trade Area that was envisaged in 1985, when the group was formed.
South Asia is moving to emulate the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the European Union. Trade between Asean nations makes up 63 per cent of Southeast Asia's trade and intra-EU trade accounts for two-thirds of the trade of the 15 EU countries. Trade among South Asian countries, 70 per cent dominated by India, is barely 5 per cent of the region's total.
"We have come to accept that if we do not close ranks our people will sink deeper into poverty and our countries will continue to suffer the consequences of discord and weakness in the fiercely competitive world," Bhutan's Prime Minister, Jigme Thinley, said.
The signing ceremony came at the end of the 12th Saarc summit in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad. The country's Prime Minister, Zafarullah Khan Jamali, described the summit as a "turning point" that could put the region on "the fast track to growth and development".
"In an increasingly interdependent world, South Asian nations have no option but to take up the challenges of globalisation by bringing into place the economic complementarities that exist among and between regions," Mr Jamali said.
Under the accord, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the region's largest economies, have until the end of 2012 to reduce tariffs to between zero and 5 per cent. Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and the Maldives have until 2016. Each country will be able to maintain a "sensitive list" of products on which tariffs will not be reduced.
Tariffs are high across South Asian borders - Pakistan and Bangladesh have import tariffs as high as 25 per cent. The tariffs may drop if India, the biggest economy in the region, meets a commitment to cut tariffs from 25 per cent to Asean levels. Asean members charge each other 5 per cent or less for 96 per cent of the goods they trade.
South Asia's quest for economic co-operation has been frustrated by the India-Pakistan conflict. The nuclear-armed neighbours came to the brink of war in 2002 after India accused Pakistan of backing a terrorist attack on its parliament in December 2001. Pakistan denied involvement.
While India and Pakistan account for 80 per cent of the US$650 billion South Asian economy, they have been unable to bridge political differences until now.
A trade agreement might help double trade between India and Pakistan to more than US$3 billion a year, the India-Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry's Ilyas Ahmed Bilour said.
At US$1.5 billion, the value of goods smuggled between the two countries is six times the value of official trade. Trade among the seven countries, home to more than 1.5 billion people, is an annual US$4 billion and could rise to $14 billion.
Former occupier Indonesia should get UN Security Council seat: East Timor
SCMP - Wednesday, January 7, 2004
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Lisbon
Updated at 11.23am:
East Timor’s Nobel Peace laureate and foreign minister overnight (HK time) said Indonesia, which brutally occupied his tiny country for over two decades, should be given a seat on the United Nation Security Council.
Speaking in Lisbon at a meeting of Portuguese diplomats, Foreign Minister Jose Ramos Horta said the United States, as the sole global superpower, should push for changes to the UN’s executive council, notably by including new regional powers like Indonesia.
“This reform should take into account new regional powers like India, Brazil, Japan and even Indonesia,” he said.
There have been persistent calls in recent years for the expansion of the Security Council, which currently has five veto-holding permanent members - Britain, China, France, Russia and the US - and 10 members elected for two-year terms.
One of the main criticisms of the Security Council is that the five permanent members, which reflect the global power structure at the time when the United Nations was set up in 1945, do not mirror current geopolitical realities.
Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, invaded former Portuguese colony East Timor in 1975 and annexed it a year later, in a move never recognised by the United Nations.
An estimated 100,000-200,000 East Timorese died in the early years of the Indonesian occupation, many from starvation or disease, as a guerilla war was waged against Jakarta.
Despite violence and intimidation from Pro-Jakarta militias, organised and armed by the Indonesian military, East Timorese chose overwhelmingly to break away from Indonesia in a UN-organised vote in August 1999.
The militias and the military waged a scorched-earth campaign before departure, in which whole towns were burnt to the ground and an estimated 1,000 people were killed.
The territory finally gained independence in May 2002 after a period of UN stewardship. East Timorese leaders since then have stressed reconciliation with their giant neighbour.
Mr Ramos Horta and Roman Catholic Bishop Carlos Belo jointly won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1996 for their efforts to free East Timor from Indonesian rule.
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Lisbon
Updated at 11.23am:
East Timor’s Nobel Peace laureate and foreign minister overnight (HK time) said Indonesia, which brutally occupied his tiny country for over two decades, should be given a seat on the United Nation Security Council.
Speaking in Lisbon at a meeting of Portuguese diplomats, Foreign Minister Jose Ramos Horta said the United States, as the sole global superpower, should push for changes to the UN’s executive council, notably by including new regional powers like Indonesia.
“This reform should take into account new regional powers like India, Brazil, Japan and even Indonesia,” he said.
There have been persistent calls in recent years for the expansion of the Security Council, which currently has five veto-holding permanent members - Britain, China, France, Russia and the US - and 10 members elected for two-year terms.
One of the main criticisms of the Security Council is that the five permanent members, which reflect the global power structure at the time when the United Nations was set up in 1945, do not mirror current geopolitical realities.
Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, invaded former Portuguese colony East Timor in 1975 and annexed it a year later, in a move never recognised by the United Nations.
An estimated 100,000-200,000 East Timorese died in the early years of the Indonesian occupation, many from starvation or disease, as a guerilla war was waged against Jakarta.
Despite violence and intimidation from Pro-Jakarta militias, organised and armed by the Indonesian military, East Timorese chose overwhelmingly to break away from Indonesia in a UN-organised vote in August 1999.
The militias and the military waged a scorched-earth campaign before departure, in which whole towns were burnt to the ground and an estimated 1,000 people were killed.
The territory finally gained independence in May 2002 after a period of UN stewardship. East Timorese leaders since then have stressed reconciliation with their giant neighbour.
Mr Ramos Horta and Roman Catholic Bishop Carlos Belo jointly won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1996 for their efforts to free East Timor from Indonesian rule.
Don't try this with your budget
SCMP - Monday, January 5, 2004
JEFFREY SACHS
George W. Bush has done more to wreck US economic policy than any other president in American history. In just three years in office, he has destroyed a fragile political consensus that had taken a decade to construct, and that could take another decade to recreate. In doing so, Mr Bush has risked America's long-term economic health and social stability. Because the long-term budgetary challenges that the US is so badly mismanaging are not unique, America's fiscal blunders provide important lessons for other countries.
The main problem with fiscal policy is that politicians can easily make themselves temporarily popular by cutting taxes and increasing public spending while running up massive public debts, leaving repayment to the future. This trick can last a few years, but sooner rather than later budget deficits and growing public debt force a painful policy reversal. Yet a cynical politician can buy himself re-election and perhaps be in retirement when the crisis arrives.
One would imagine that after hundreds of such episodes of fiscal irresponsibility around the world in recent decades, voters would be allergic to such tricks. Yet Mr Bush is doing it again, buying popularity today by doling out massive tax cuts, while simultaneously increasing military spending and even raising expenditure on education and health. The result is a budget deficit equivalent to more than 5 per cent of gross domestic product. What is worse is that America's long-term budgetary prospects were already troubling before Mr Bush began his reckless policies. The US population is ageing, so there will be a sharp increase in the costs of publicly funded health-care and pension systems.
Calculations show that future revenues under the tax policies favoured by Mr Bush are likely to fall tens of trillions of dollars short of the costs of public pensions, health care and other fiscal spending expected by the public.
At some point, there will have to be steep increases in tax collections, sharp cuts in public spending, or both, to correct Mr Bush's actions. So why does the public support his policies? Because the public has little understanding or concern about these long-term consequences, even though they will eventually hurt most Americans.
The richest taxpayers are, of course, happy because they received the bulk of the tax cuts. Amazingly, the richest 5 per cent of US taxpayers received almost half the tax cuts, and they clearly expect the other 95 per cent - the middle class and the poor - to bear most of the future spending cuts and tax increases.
Meanwhile, Mr Bush has convinced many poor and middle-class voters that they should be happy, too, without telling them that they will have to pay for their small tax cuts with much larger cuts in future government services if his administration's policies prevail in the long term. If Americans had a political memory, they would understand that they have already ridden this fiscal roller coaster once in the past 20 years. Ronald Reagan also came to office promising massive tax cuts and large increases in military spending. The result was a huge budget deficit by the middle of the 1980s.
Tax cuts made Mr Reagan enormously popular and helped win him re-election in 1984. It then took more than a decade to get the budget back to surplus. Of course, this meant approving fresh tax increases, which cost George Bush senior his re-election and led to the polarised politics of the 1990s.
History will almost certainly repeat itself. Some right-wing ideologues in the Bush administration believe that today's budget deficits will eventually force government social spending to be cut sharply. They hope to dismantle programmes such as social security and Medicare. But the US public strongly supports these social programmes. So the right-wing strategy of cutting taxes first to force cuts in social programmes later will fail, and eventually tax rates will have to rise.
Others in the Bush administration argue that tax cuts are important for pulling the US out of recession. This argument is also mistaken. America's economy could have recovered without the tax cuts, and perhaps even more robustly. In any event, it is a huge mistake to base long-term tax policies on the short-run business cycle. There are two vital lessons for other countries. The first is that the looming US budget deficits will sooner or later limit America's international power. Americans supported the Iraq war only because they did not have to pay for it with increased taxes. When they are forced to choose between foreign adventures and higher taxes, they will be much less likely to support expensive military operations abroad.
Indeed, the US will be deeply divided internally as the public grapples with the fiscal mess left by Mr Bush.
The second lesson is that countries ought to plan their budgets taking into account the rising fiscal costs of an ageing population. Long-term budgetary conditions are rarely in clear view of taxpayers or parliament. Governments should be required to submit long-term budget assessments together with their annual budget proposals, to reduce the tendency towards short-run political manipulation of the budget.
The US can serve as an early warning to other countries. The White House ought to provide others with the same caveat that magicians on television give their viewers: do not try this at home.
Jeffrey Sachs is a professor of economics and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York.
JEFFREY SACHS
George W. Bush has done more to wreck US economic policy than any other president in American history. In just three years in office, he has destroyed a fragile political consensus that had taken a decade to construct, and that could take another decade to recreate. In doing so, Mr Bush has risked America's long-term economic health and social stability. Because the long-term budgetary challenges that the US is so badly mismanaging are not unique, America's fiscal blunders provide important lessons for other countries.
The main problem with fiscal policy is that politicians can easily make themselves temporarily popular by cutting taxes and increasing public spending while running up massive public debts, leaving repayment to the future. This trick can last a few years, but sooner rather than later budget deficits and growing public debt force a painful policy reversal. Yet a cynical politician can buy himself re-election and perhaps be in retirement when the crisis arrives.
One would imagine that after hundreds of such episodes of fiscal irresponsibility around the world in recent decades, voters would be allergic to such tricks. Yet Mr Bush is doing it again, buying popularity today by doling out massive tax cuts, while simultaneously increasing military spending and even raising expenditure on education and health. The result is a budget deficit equivalent to more than 5 per cent of gross domestic product. What is worse is that America's long-term budgetary prospects were already troubling before Mr Bush began his reckless policies. The US population is ageing, so there will be a sharp increase in the costs of publicly funded health-care and pension systems.
Calculations show that future revenues under the tax policies favoured by Mr Bush are likely to fall tens of trillions of dollars short of the costs of public pensions, health care and other fiscal spending expected by the public.
At some point, there will have to be steep increases in tax collections, sharp cuts in public spending, or both, to correct Mr Bush's actions. So why does the public support his policies? Because the public has little understanding or concern about these long-term consequences, even though they will eventually hurt most Americans.
The richest taxpayers are, of course, happy because they received the bulk of the tax cuts. Amazingly, the richest 5 per cent of US taxpayers received almost half the tax cuts, and they clearly expect the other 95 per cent - the middle class and the poor - to bear most of the future spending cuts and tax increases.
Meanwhile, Mr Bush has convinced many poor and middle-class voters that they should be happy, too, without telling them that they will have to pay for their small tax cuts with much larger cuts in future government services if his administration's policies prevail in the long term. If Americans had a political memory, they would understand that they have already ridden this fiscal roller coaster once in the past 20 years. Ronald Reagan also came to office promising massive tax cuts and large increases in military spending. The result was a huge budget deficit by the middle of the 1980s.
Tax cuts made Mr Reagan enormously popular and helped win him re-election in 1984. It then took more than a decade to get the budget back to surplus. Of course, this meant approving fresh tax increases, which cost George Bush senior his re-election and led to the polarised politics of the 1990s.
History will almost certainly repeat itself. Some right-wing ideologues in the Bush administration believe that today's budget deficits will eventually force government social spending to be cut sharply. They hope to dismantle programmes such as social security and Medicare. But the US public strongly supports these social programmes. So the right-wing strategy of cutting taxes first to force cuts in social programmes later will fail, and eventually tax rates will have to rise.
Others in the Bush administration argue that tax cuts are important for pulling the US out of recession. This argument is also mistaken. America's economy could have recovered without the tax cuts, and perhaps even more robustly. In any event, it is a huge mistake to base long-term tax policies on the short-run business cycle. There are two vital lessons for other countries. The first is that the looming US budget deficits will sooner or later limit America's international power. Americans supported the Iraq war only because they did not have to pay for it with increased taxes. When they are forced to choose between foreign adventures and higher taxes, they will be much less likely to support expensive military operations abroad.
Indeed, the US will be deeply divided internally as the public grapples with the fiscal mess left by Mr Bush.
The second lesson is that countries ought to plan their budgets taking into account the rising fiscal costs of an ageing population. Long-term budgetary conditions are rarely in clear view of taxpayers or parliament. Governments should be required to submit long-term budget assessments together with their annual budget proposals, to reduce the tendency towards short-run political manipulation of the budget.
The US can serve as an early warning to other countries. The White House ought to provide others with the same caveat that magicians on television give their viewers: do not try this at home.
Jeffrey Sachs is a professor of economics and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York.
NPC and US Senate to meet each other
SCMP-Monday, January 5, 2004
RAY CHEUNG
The National People's Congress and US Senate have agreed to hold annual meetings, the first such high-level parliamentary exchange between the two countries.
The announcement comes as the central government steps up its diplomatic overtures to win over the US legislature.
Sheng Huaren, the vice-chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, signed a memorandum of understanding with US senators Ted Stevens and Daniel Inouye at a meeting in Honolulu, Hawaii, on Saturday.
Twelve senior Chinese and American legislators from each side will meet every year, with hosting alternating between Beijing and Washington, under the arrangement.
Chinese ambassador to the US Yang Jiechi and vice-chairman of the NPC's Foreign Affairs Committee Lu Congmin were also present at the Honolulu signing.
Jennifer Mies, director of the US Senate's office of president pro tempore affairs, said the first meeting is scheduled for August this year in Beijing with the second one in Washington in 2005.
The August gathering will be hosted by NPC chairman Wu Bangguo with vice-chairman Sheng to lead the Chinese delegation. The visiting US delegation will be headed by Senator Stevens, who will serve as the exchange programme's US chairman with Senator Inouye the co-chairman.
Discussion topics are to include agriculture, finance, foreign relations and military affairs.
US officials also said they will issue a formal invitation to the NPC chairman to visit the US at an appropriate time.
Ms Mies said the exchange programme, which will also include study visits by the staff of the respective legislatures, was another attempt at promoting understanding between China and the US.
"Both sides are extremely enthusiastic about this programme," she said.
In addition, the two sides may send small delegations to visit each other every year in an effort to strengthen communication.
Ms Mies said the agreement was the product of more than a year of negotiations.
Currently, US legislators visit the mainland to meet Chinese leaders on an individual basis and not through an institutionalised exchange programme.
Meanwhile, the Washington Times reported last Friday the Chinese embassy in Washington had established a new political unit with the task of lobbying the Bush administration and US Congress.
According to the report, the section is staffed by 26 officers and is headed by influential Sino-US relations scholar Su Ge, who was previously the vice-president of the Foreign Ministry-backed China Institute of International Studies.
One of the section's recent actions was an e-mail campaign last month to selected members of Congress. The e-mail contained an essay written by China critic Ross Munro in which he criticised Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian for provoking the mainland and disregarding US security interests.
RAY CHEUNG
The National People's Congress and US Senate have agreed to hold annual meetings, the first such high-level parliamentary exchange between the two countries.
The announcement comes as the central government steps up its diplomatic overtures to win over the US legislature.
Sheng Huaren, the vice-chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, signed a memorandum of understanding with US senators Ted Stevens and Daniel Inouye at a meeting in Honolulu, Hawaii, on Saturday.
Twelve senior Chinese and American legislators from each side will meet every year, with hosting alternating between Beijing and Washington, under the arrangement.
Chinese ambassador to the US Yang Jiechi and vice-chairman of the NPC's Foreign Affairs Committee Lu Congmin were also present at the Honolulu signing.
Jennifer Mies, director of the US Senate's office of president pro tempore affairs, said the first meeting is scheduled for August this year in Beijing with the second one in Washington in 2005.
The August gathering will be hosted by NPC chairman Wu Bangguo with vice-chairman Sheng to lead the Chinese delegation. The visiting US delegation will be headed by Senator Stevens, who will serve as the exchange programme's US chairman with Senator Inouye the co-chairman.
Discussion topics are to include agriculture, finance, foreign relations and military affairs.
US officials also said they will issue a formal invitation to the NPC chairman to visit the US at an appropriate time.
Ms Mies said the exchange programme, which will also include study visits by the staff of the respective legislatures, was another attempt at promoting understanding between China and the US.
"Both sides are extremely enthusiastic about this programme," she said.
In addition, the two sides may send small delegations to visit each other every year in an effort to strengthen communication.
Ms Mies said the agreement was the product of more than a year of negotiations.
Currently, US legislators visit the mainland to meet Chinese leaders on an individual basis and not through an institutionalised exchange programme.
Meanwhile, the Washington Times reported last Friday the Chinese embassy in Washington had established a new political unit with the task of lobbying the Bush administration and US Congress.
According to the report, the section is staffed by 26 officers and is headed by influential Sino-US relations scholar Su Ge, who was previously the vice-president of the Foreign Ministry-backed China Institute of International Studies.
One of the section's recent actions was an e-mail campaign last month to selected members of Congress. The e-mail contained an essay written by China critic Ross Munro in which he criticised Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian for provoking the mainland and disregarding US security interests.
S Korean farmers protest over trade pact
SCMP - Wednesday, December 31, 2003
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Seoul
A demonstration by 2,000 South Korean farmers against a free-trade agreement with Chile entered its second day amid a standoff with riot police outside parliament in Seoul.
On Monday, clashes between police and thousands of farmers left 10 people injured.
Some 3,000 riot police carrying shields and sticks have maintained a tight security blockade around the sprawling compound.
Police said 50 protestors were detained after they chained themselves to a bridge leading to the National Assembly.
South Korea signed its first free-trade pact with Chile in February, but its ratification has been delayed.
Trade officials insist further delays may hurt South Korea's exports and external credit standing.
Farmers, however, want parliament to cancel the planned vote on the bill, claiming the agreement would flood the South Korean market with cheaper Chilean farm products.
Under the pact, Chile will lift all tariffs on South Korean cars, trucks, mobile phones and other industrial goods. In return, South Korea will immediately remove tariffs on Chilean copper products, animal feed, wheat, wool, tomatoes and 277 fisheries products.
A 739 billion won (HK$4.83 billion) aid package proposed in September has failed to appease the farmers.
Free-trade agreements are a worldwide trend in this age of globalisation. Nearly 300 bilateral and multilateral free-trade pacts are in effect, although South Korea and five other nations among the 146 members of the World Trade Organisation have been signatories to none of them.
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Seoul
A demonstration by 2,000 South Korean farmers against a free-trade agreement with Chile entered its second day amid a standoff with riot police outside parliament in Seoul.
On Monday, clashes between police and thousands of farmers left 10 people injured.
Some 3,000 riot police carrying shields and sticks have maintained a tight security blockade around the sprawling compound.
Police said 50 protestors were detained after they chained themselves to a bridge leading to the National Assembly.
South Korea signed its first free-trade pact with Chile in February, but its ratification has been delayed.
Trade officials insist further delays may hurt South Korea's exports and external credit standing.
Farmers, however, want parliament to cancel the planned vote on the bill, claiming the agreement would flood the South Korean market with cheaper Chilean farm products.
Under the pact, Chile will lift all tariffs on South Korean cars, trucks, mobile phones and other industrial goods. In return, South Korea will immediately remove tariffs on Chilean copper products, animal feed, wheat, wool, tomatoes and 277 fisheries products.
A 739 billion won (HK$4.83 billion) aid package proposed in September has failed to appease the farmers.
Free-trade agreements are a worldwide trend in this age of globalisation. Nearly 300 bilateral and multilateral free-trade pacts are in effect, although South Korea and five other nations among the 146 members of the World Trade Organisation have been signatories to none of them.
